Papers & Research Outputs
Working papers, methods notes, and formal research outputs from AhaSignals.
STATUS
AhaSignals is building a structured archive of working papers and methods notes. Papers listed below are in various stages of development. Where available, links to external repositories (Zenodo, SSRN) are provided for citation and verification.
Published Papers
PUBLISHED · MARCH 2026
Consensus Divergence Index (CDI) Methodology and Raw Dataset — March 2026
Methodology paper and raw dataset for the Consensus Divergence Index (CDI), a composite measure of forecast dispersion across institutional, market-implied, and prediction-market dimensions. Covers gold, silver, Fed rates, DXY, S&P 500, Bitcoin, and cross-asset systems. Includes full scoring formulas, component definitions, and the complete raw dataset used to compute published CDI values.
Author: Felix Liu
CITE AS
Liu, F. (2026). Consensus Divergence Index (CDI) Methodology and Raw Dataset — March 2026. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19109487
PUBLISHED · 2026
Consensus Fragility in the Age of AI: Cross-Market Divergence, Forecast Failure, and Structural Repricing Risk
This paper formalizes the concept of consensus fragility as a measurable structural property of financial markets. It examines how institutional forecasts, market prices, and market-implied probabilities can appear aligned while harboring latent repricing risk — and proposes a framework for detecting and quantifying this fragility across gold, silver, rates, and cross-asset systems.
Author: Felix Liu
Related Site Research
In addition to formal papers, AhaSignals publishes research articles, tracker methodologies, and structured datasets on the main site:
Official Research Archive
AhaSignals research outputs are deposited in external academic repositories for citation, archival, and independent verification:
How to Cite
For the CDI methodology paper and dataset, use the Zenodo DOI for a permanent, citable reference:
Liu, F. (2026). Consensus Divergence Index (CDI) Methodology and Raw Dataset — March 2026. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19109487
For the consensus fragility paper on SSRN:
Liu, F. (2026). Consensus Fragility in the Age of AI: Cross-Market Divergence, Forecast Failure, and Structural Repricing Risk. SSRN. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=6441258
For other AhaSignals content, cite the specific page URL, author name, and access date:
Liu, F. (2026). [Title]. AhaSignals. Retrieved [date] from https://ahasignals.com/[page]/