DATASET
LBMA Gold Price Forecast Analysis — Accuracy & Consensus Data
AhaSignals' analysis of the LBMA Annual Gold Price Forecast Survey, covering 2020–2026 with 195+ individual analyst predictions. This page provides derived analytical metrics including accuracy rankings, consensus divergence indices, and dispersion scores. For the original survey data, please visit the LBMA directly.
← Back to Gold Forecast TrackerTotal Records
195+
Date Range
2020–2026
Format
Analysis
Update Frequency
Annual (Jan)
Data Preview
| Year | Analyst | Institution | Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Robin Bhar | Robin Bhar Metals Consulting | $4,000 | Cautious |
| 2026 | Bart Melek | TD Securities | $4,213 | Cautious |
| 2026 | Bernard Dahdah | Natixis | $4,250 | Cautious |
| 2026 | Debajit Saha | Metals Research, Refinitiv, an LSEG Business | $4,269 | Cautious |
| 2026 | Caroline Bain | Bain Commodities | $4,299 | Cautious |
| 2026 | Rhona O'Connell | StoneX Financial Ltd | $4,380 | Moderate |
| 2026 | Srivatsava Ganapathy | Eventell Global Advisory P Ltd. | $4,420 | Moderate |
| 2026 | Christopher Louney | Commodity Strategist, RBC Capital Markets | $4,427 | Moderate |
Showing first 8 rows of analysis data.
LBMA Gold Forecast Survey Data
Analysis based on 195+ analyst forecasts · 2020–2026 · accuracy metrics computed by AhaSignals
- Consensus divergence analysis (CDI)
- Forecast accuracy rankings
- Dispersion score tracking
- Historical error analysis
- Institutional vs independent comparison
- Narrative cascade detection
Original Data Source
The raw forecast data is sourced from the LBMA Annual Precious Metals Forecast Survey, published each January by the London Bullion Market Association. For the original survey data, please visit the LBMA directly.
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Methodology & Notes
Data analysis is based on the LBMA Annual Forecast Survey, published each January. The survey collects calendar-year average gold price forecasts from analysts at banks, trading houses, and research firms. AhaSignals compiles derived analytical metrics (accuracy rankings, consensus divergence, dispersion scores) from publicly available LBMA publications and cross-references with historical actual prices from the London PM Fix. Accuracy metrics (absolute error %) are calculated as |forecast - actual| / actual × 100. For the original survey data, visit lbma.org.uk. See our Gold Forecast Tracker for interactive analysis.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the LBMA Gold Forecast Survey?
- The LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) Annual Forecast Survey is an annual poll of precious metals analysts, collecting their predictions for the calendar-year average gold price. It has been conducted since the early 2000s and is one of the most widely cited gold forecast benchmarks.
- How many analysts are covered in the analysis?
- Our analysis covers 195+ individual analyst forecasts spanning 2020–2026. The number of participants varies by year, typically ranging from 25 to 40 analysts per survey.
- Where can I get the original LBMA data?
- The original LBMA forecast survey data is published by the London Bullion Market Association. Visit lbma.org.uk for the official survey publications. AhaSignals provides derived analytical metrics (accuracy rankings, consensus indices, dispersion scores) based on publicly available LBMA data.
- How accurate are LBMA gold forecasts?
- LBMA consensus forecasts have historically shown significant error in volatile years. The average consensus error across all years in our analysis is approximately 10–15%. Individual analyst accuracy varies widely. See our Gold Forecast Tracker for detailed accuracy rankings.
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Data provided for research and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. See methodology.