Kalshi Consensus Thermometer
Real-time consensus fragility analysis for regulated prediction markets
QUICK ANSWER · AS OF Apr 18, 2026, 05:00 AM
What is the Kalshi Consensus Thermometer?
The Kalshi Consensus Thermometer tracks belief concentration across regulated prediction markets. Current readings: Fed Rates CDI 0.95, CPI CDI 0.95, FOMC CDI 0.88, Rate Cuts CDI 0.95. High fragility alert is active — crowded beliefs detected.
Fed Rates CDI
0.95
CPI CDI
0.95
FOMC CDI
0.88
Composite
95/100 (HIGH ALERT)
CDI above 0.70 signals extreme belief concentration — historically a precursor to sharp reversals. At least one macro market currently exceeds this threshold, indicating consensus fragility risk.
CDI 95/100 — High fragility alert active — crowded beliefs detected across macro markets.
Fed Rates CDI
0.95
CPI CDI
0.95
FOMC CDI
0.88
Data Notice
Consensus metrics are sourced from Kalshi's public API and updated periodically. This is a cognitive science research tool for studying consensus dynamics — not a real-time trading feed.
📖 How to Read This Dashboard
DMS — how far current prices have drifted from their 7-day average. When DMS exceeds 70% and CDI exceeds 0.80, a divergence alert fires.
BSE — belief diversity (Shannon entropy). Lower = more concentrated, more fragile.
CV — consensus velocity, measuring how fast beliefs are shifting. Higher = faster-moving consensus.
Implied — the market-implied probability of the most likely outcome for that contract.
🥇 Why This Matters for Gold
Fed rate expectations and CPI inflation are two of the strongest macro drivers of gold prices. When the market reaches extreme consensus on "rates staying high" or "inflation staying low," that crowded positioning can unwind sharply — historically coinciding with gold price inflection points.
- FOMC Decision CDI high + hold consensus → market may be underpricing a surprise cut, which historically supports gold
- CPI consensus extreme → crowded inflation expectations are fragile; a surprise print can trigger rapid gold repricing
- Rate Cut Count CDI rising → growing conviction on the number of cuts; when this reverses, gold often reacts first
See also: LBMA Gold Forecast Tracker and Gold Market Research.
Current Market Consensus Status
Fed Funds Rate Consensus — DMS: 0.0%
CPI Inflation Consensus — DMS: 1.0%
Fed Meeting Consensus — DMS: 0.0%
2026 Rate Cuts Consensus — DMS: 0.0%
Kalshi Prediction Market Consensus
Real-time consensus fragility indicators for prediction markets
Macro Core Indicators
Primary consensus metrics - always monitored
Historical CDI Trends
Consensus Density Index over time
Kalshi CDI Fragility Index History
Consensus Density Index over time for prediction markets
Historical CDI values reflect consensus fragility states. Not a price prediction tool. Not affiliated with Kalshi.
Cognitive science research tool. Not investment advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.
→ View MethodologyMethodology
The Kalshi Consensus Thermometer applies the Consensus Density Index (CDI) and Belief System Entropy (BSE) framework to regulated prediction market data. This methodology was originally developed for analyzing consensus dynamics in precious metals markets and has been adapted for binary outcome prediction markets.
Key Metrics:
- CDI (0.20-0.95): Measures belief concentration. Higher values indicate more crowded consensus, which correlates with increased fragility.
- BSE (0.10-0.85): Measures belief diversity using Shannon entropy. Lower values indicate less diversity and higher fragility risk.
- DMS (0-1): Divergence Magnitude Score measuring the gap between current price and 7-day moving average.
- CV (0.25-0.90): Consensus Velocity measuring the speed of belief change.
For a complete explanation of the theoretical framework and calculation methods, see the Consensus Thermometer Framework .
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This is a cognitive science research tool for studying consensus dynamics. This is NOT investment advice.
The Kalshi Consensus Thermometer is designed for academic research into belief concentration and consensus fragility patterns. The metrics displayed should not be used as the basis for any trading or investment decisions.
AhaSignals is not affiliated with Kalshi, Inc. All market data is sourced from Kalshi's public API and is provided for research purposes only.
Prediction markets involve substantial risk of loss. Past consensus patterns do not predict future market movements. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Kalshi Consensus Thermometer?
The Kalshi Consensus Thermometer is a cognitive science research tool that measures belief concentration and consensus fragility in Kalshi prediction markets. It applies the CDI/BSE framework — originally developed for precious metals — to regulated binary outcome markets covering Fed rates, CPI, and FOMC decisions.
What does a high CDI value mean?
A high CDI (above 0.70) indicates that market participants' beliefs are heavily concentrated around a single outcome. While this may reflect genuine conviction, research shows that extreme consensus concentration (CDI above 0.85) often precedes sharp reversals — a phenomenon known as consensus fragility.
How often is the data updated?
Consensus metrics are sourced from Kalshi's public API and updated periodically. The "Last Fetched" timestamp at the top of the page shows when the data was last pulled. This is a research tool — do not rely on it for real-time trading decisions.
What triggers a Divergence Alert?
A Divergence Alert fires when two conditions are met simultaneously: the Divergence Magnitude Score (DMS) exceeds 70% and the CDI exceeds 0.80. This combination signals that prices are moving away from their recent average while beliefs remain highly concentrated — a potential inflection point.
Is this investment advice?
No. The Kalshi Consensus Thermometer is strictly a cognitive science research tool for studying consensus dynamics and belief concentration patterns. AhaSignals is not affiliated with Kalshi, Inc. and the metrics displayed should not be used as the basis for any trading or investment decisions.
April 2026 Macro Fragility Correlation Map
Rate expectations, fiscal stress, and cross-asset signals are showing elevated correlation in April 2026. This audit maps the Q2–Q3 transmission channels across the AhaSignals tracker network.
GOLD
Gold Consensus — Safe-Haven Demand Signal
Gold consensus dispersion in April 2026 reflects institutional uncertainty about the rate path. When LBMA analyst targets widen, it signals macro regime ambiguity.
YIELDS
10Y Treasury Yield — Survey vs Reality
TYFI captures the gap between SPF survey expectations and market-implied yields. In April 2026, this divergence is a leading indicator for rate fragility.
DOLLAR
Dollar Index — Consensus Divergence
DCDI measures EUR/USD consensus divergence. Dollar strength or weakness in April 2026 transmits directly to commodity pricing and emerging market stress.
EQUITY
S&P 500 Concentration — Breadth Risk
ACRI tracks market breadth deterioration. In April 2026, concentration risk amplifies the impact of rate surprises on equity valuations.
Last consensus audit performed on April 18, 2026. Correlation signals update with each tracker build cycle.
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CDI Definition
Consensus Density Index glossary entry
BSE Definition
Belief System Entropy glossary entry
Consensus Fragility
Understanding fragility in belief systems