Research Standards & Editorial Policy

Authorship

All substantive research published on AhaSignals is attributed to named authors. Each tracker page, research article, and methods note identifies the responsible author via a byline that links to their author page.

Author pages disclose research focus, relevant background, external research profiles (such as ORCID or SSRN), and selected published work. The goal is to make it straightforward for readers to evaluate who is responsible for the analysis.

Review Process

AhaSignals research is currently author-reviewed. This means the author is responsible for verifying data sources, checking calculations, and reviewing the final output before publication.

We are transparent about this: AhaSignals does not currently have an external peer review process. Each page displays its review status (e.g., "Author-reviewed") so readers can calibrate accordingly.

As the research program matures, we may introduce external review for selected working papers and formal publications. Any change in review process will be reflected on the relevant pages.

Data Sources

AhaSignals uses only publicly available, verifiable data sources. Every data point that feeds into a scored index component must be traceable to a free, public, clickable URL.

Primary source categories include:

• Government agencies: US Treasury, Federal Reserve (FRED), BLS, BEA, CBO
• Industry surveys: LBMA Annual Forecast Surveys (gold and silver)
• Market data: Fed Funds futures (public settlement data), CFTC COT reports, public futures data
• Prediction markets: Kalshi, Polymarket (public odds where accessible)
• International organizations: IMF, IEA (public reports only)

Paywalled or proprietary research (e.g., sell-side bank reports) may appear in clearly labeled "Reference Only" tables but is never used as a scored index input. See our Methodology for details.

AI Usage Disclosure

AhaSignals uses AI tools as part of its research workflow. We believe transparency about AI involvement is essential for readers to evaluate our work.

All AI-assisted content undergoes human review before publication.

Corrections Policy

When errors are identified in published research, AhaSignals corrects them promptly and documents the change.

• Data corrections are logged in snapshot file audit comments with date, old value, new value, and source
• Methodology changes trigger a version bump (e.g., v0.1-beta → v0.2-beta) with documentation
• Material corrections to research articles are noted at the top of the page

Readers can report errors or data issues via research@ahasignals.com.

Known Limitations

• Research is currently author-reviewed, not externally peer-reviewed
• Composite indices (GFI, FRFI, UFFI, etc.) use simplified scoring models that may not capture all market dynamics
• Data freshness depends on source publication schedules and pipeline update frequency
• Prediction market data availability varies by platform and jurisdiction
• Historical backtesting of divergence signals is limited by data availability

Contact

Questions about research standards, data sources, or corrections: research@ahasignals.com

Related Pages

• Authors
• About AhaSignals
• Papers & Research Outputs
• Methodology