DOLLAR BREADTH & TRANSMISSION DASHBOARD
DXY vs Fed Broad Dollar Index — USD Crosscurrents Dashboard
Which dollar measure is driving markets right now: DXY, the Fed Broad Dollar, or a specific transmission channel? We don't predict exchange rates. We measure where the dollar's transmission channels are diverging from consensus — and which version of "dollar strength" is actually driving markets.
QUICK ANSWER · AS OF Mar 18, 2026
What is the difference between DXY and the broad dollar?
DXY and the Fed Broad Dollar Index are different dollar measures and should not be compared by raw index level alone. DXY is a fixed 6-currency benchmark dominated by EUR (57.6% weight); the Fed Broad Dollar tracks 26 currencies including EM. AhaSignals compares normalized changes across the two to identify whether dollar strength is concentrated in G10 or spreading through EM. As of Mar 18, 2026, the current divergence suggests EM currencies are weaker than G10 — dollar strength is broader than DXY alone shows.
DXY Reference
98.23
Broad Dollar (Fed)
116.5
EUR/USD Spot
1.1453
USD/JPY
159.2
EUR/USD spot (1.1453) is 4.2% below the sell-side consensus median of 1.2 (range 1.1–1.25) for Q4 2026. AhaSignals monitors this gap as a crosscurrents context signal — it is shown here as a transmission indicator, not as a formal DCDI component.
CITATION SUMMARY · Fed H.10 · IMF COFER Q3 2025 · CFTC COT · US Treasury · ECB · AS OF Mar 18, 2026
As of Mar 18, 2026, the ICE DXY reference level is 98.23 while the Fed Broad Dollar Index reads 116.5. These raw levels are not directly comparable; AhaSignals compares normalized changes to identify divergence. EUR/USD at 1.1453 trades 4.2% below the sell-side consensus median of 1.2 (range 1.1–1.25) for Q4 2026. The US-Japan 10Y yield gap is 205bp. IMF COFER data (Q3 2025) shows USD reserve share at 56.9% nominal (~57.7% FX-adjusted). AhaSignals' Crosscurrents Signal reads DIVERGENT, indicating DXY and the Fed Broad Dollar Index are telling different stories about dollar strength as of Mar 18, 2026.
CROSSCURRENTS SIGNAL
DIVERGENT
DXY and Broad Dollar are telling different stories — EM weakness is masking G10 dollar softness
Spot ~4.6% below sell-side consensus median
Spread compressed to 205bp. BOJ at 0.75%. USD/JPY at 159.15 — 0.85 pts from MOF intervention.
De-dollarization steady, not accelerating (FX-adjusted ~0.1pp/yr)
Broad stronger on normalized basis — EM drag not in DXY
DXY vs Fed Broad Dollar — Are They Telling the Same Story?
DXY and the Fed Broad Dollar Index are not directly comparable by raw level. AhaSignals compares normalized changes across the fixed 6-currency DXY basket and the Fed's broader trade-weighted dollar measures to identify whether USD strength is concentrated in G10 or spreading through EM.
DXY Reference
98.23
6 currencies · not official ICE feed
Broad Dollar (Fed)
116.5
26 currencies
AFE Dollar (Fed)
108.2
Advanced economies
EME Dollar (Fed)
128.4
Emerging markets
On a normalized basis, broad dollar strength exceeds DXY strength, suggesting EM weakness is contributing more than the G10 basket alone would imply. Note: DXY and Fed Broad Dollar raw index levels are not directly comparable — AhaSignals compares normalized changes.
Source: Federal Reserve H.10 Statistical Release · as of Mar 18, 2026
EUR/USD Consensus Gap: Spot vs Wall Street Forecast 2026
EUR/USD drives ~58% of DXY movement. When spot diverges from consensus, either the market or the banks are wrong.
EUR/USD Spot
1.1453
Consensus Median (Q4)
1.20
Range: 1.1–1.25
Gap vs Consensus
-4.2%
ECB–Fed Gap
160bp
EUR/USD has pulled back from 1.20+ highs to ~1.15 amid Iran war risk-off flows. Both Fed and ECB on hold. Markets pricing potential ECB hikes due to energy inflation, which could support EUR if realized.
Consensus range sourced from major bank forecast compilation (GS, JPM, MS, BofA, Citi, DB, ING, UBS). Individual bank forecasts vary significantly. See DXY Forecast Tracker (DCDI) for full table · Major Banks Comparison
USD/JPY Yield Gap: Carry Trade & MOF Intervention Risk 2026
JPY is the second-largest DXY weight (13.6%). The US-Japan yield gap drives carry trade flows, while MOF intervention risk caps USD/JPY upside near 160.
USD/JPY
159.2
US-JP Spread
205bp
BOJ Rate
0.75%
To MOF Red Line
0.8 pts
IMM JPY Net
-67,800 contracts
18nd percentile (52w; AhaSignals calculation based on CFTC COT data)
JGB 10Y
2.3%
BOJ normalization in progress
Yield gap narrowing (205bp from 340bp+ in early 2025) as JGB 10Y surges to 2.30%. BOJ at 0.75%, next hike to 1.0% expected Apr-Jun 2026. USD/JPY at 159.15 is 0.85 pts from MOF intervention zone — extreme proximity.
USD/CNH & De-Dollarization: IMF COFER Reserve Data 2026
CNY is not in the DXY basket, but China's trade weight and reserve diversification affect the dollar through channels DXY doesn't capture. COFER does not include monetary gold.
USD/CNH
7.24
USD Reserve %
56.9%
Q3 2025 nominal · ~57.7% FX-adj
CNY Reserve %
1.93%
Down from 2.83% peak (Q1 2022)
USD Decline Rate
Nominal: ~0.5pp/yr
FX-adj: ~0.1pp/yr
Headline overstates rebalancing
De-dollarization pace steady but not accelerating; CNY share declining from 2.83% peak (Q1 2022) to 1.93% (Q3 2025)
Source: IMF COFER · Q3 2025, released Dec 19, 2025 · Monetary gold is excluded from COFER; tracked separately by IMF IFS
Data Sources & Provenance
| Source | Type | Used For |
|---|---|---|
| Fed H.10 | Primary public | Broad Dollar, AFE, EME indices, bilateral rates |
| IMF COFER | Primary public | Reserve currency composition (quarterly) |
| CFTC COT | Primary public | IMM currency futures positioning |
| US Treasury | Primary public | US 10Y yield |
| ECB Yield Curves | Primary public | German 10Y yield, ECB rate |
| BIS EER | Primary public | Effective exchange rates (cross-reference) |
| Wall Street bank forecasts | Secondary/aggregated | EUR/USD, USD/JPY consensus direction and range — used for consensus gap measurement only, not for trading signals or price targets. Individual bank forecasts are paraphrased summaries, not reproduced research. |
| Bank of Japan | Primary public | Policy rate, JGB yields |
| Japan MOF | Primary public | Intervention history reference |
Related Fragility Signals
DCDI
DXY Consensus Divergence Index
DXY at 98.23 — where Wall Street expects it vs where it is.
CURRENT
Current DXY Value Today
Latest DXY level, yield spreads, and positioning data.
TYFI
10Y Treasury Yield Tracker
US 10Y at 4.06% — the yield that drives rate differentials.
GFI
Gold Forecast Tracker
Gold and the dollar: the classic inverse. Is the relationship holding?
FRFI
Fed Rate Fragility Index
Fed rate path is the primary driver of dollar direction in 2026.
UFFI
US Fiscal Fragility Index
Fiscal deficit is a structural headwind for the dollar.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the difference between DXY and the Fed Broad Dollar Index?
- The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index®, an ICE trademark) measures the dollar against 6 major currencies with EUR at 57.6% weight. The Fed Broad Dollar Index tracks 26 currencies weighted by trade volume, including emerging markets like CNY, MXN, KRW. Their raw index levels are not directly comparable — AhaSignals compares normalized changes to identify whether dollar strength is concentrated in G10 or spreading through EM. As of Mar 18, 2026, DXY reference level is 98.23 while the Broad Dollar is at 116.5.
- Why does the Broad Dollar Index show a stronger dollar than DXY?
- When the Broad Dollar exceeds DXY in relative terms, it means emerging market currencies (CNY, MXN, KRW, INR, BRL) are weaker against USD than the G10 currencies in the DXY basket. This often reflects capital flight from EM, commodity price weakness, or EM central bank easing cycles. The current gap suggests EM weakness is amplifying dollar strength beyond what DXY alone shows.
- What is the USD/JPY yield gap and why does it matter?
- The USD/JPY yield gap is the difference between US and Japanese 10-year government bond yields. Currently 205bp (US 4.35% vs JGB 2.3%). This spread drives carry trade flows — investors borrow in low-yield JPY to invest in higher-yield USD assets. When the gap narrows (BOJ tightening or Fed cutting), carry trades unwind and USD/JPY falls. The MOF historically intervenes near 160.
- Is de-dollarization actually happening in 2026?
- IMF COFER data (Q3 2025, released Dec 19 2025) shows the USD share of global allocated reserves at 56.9% nominal (~57.7% FX-adjusted), down from 59% five years ago. Nominal: ~0.5pp/yr since 2020; FX-adjusted: ~0.1pp/yr (IMF blog, Oct 2025). The headline decline overstates actual portfolio rebalancing. The CNY share has actually declined to 1.93% from a 2.83% peak in Q1 2022. Monetary gold is excluded from COFER; tracked separately by IMF IFS. The pace is steady but not accelerating — this is gradual diversification, not a sudden regime shift. COFER does not include monetary gold, which is tracked separately.
- What is the EUR/USD consensus for 2026?
- Wall Street consensus for EUR/USD by Q4 2026 has a median of ~1.2, with a range of 1.1–1.25. Spot EUR/USD is currently 1.1453 — 4.2% below the consensus median. This gap reflects the ECB cutting rates faster than the Fed (ECB 2.15% vs Fed 3.75%), compressing the rate differential that was expected to support EUR. Consensus range sourced from major bank forecast compilation; individual bank forecasts vary significantly. See DCDI tracker for full breakdown.
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