Bitcoin Prediction Tracker

Wall Street and crypto-native analysts target BTC between $95k and $180k for end of 2026 (mean: $128k). Prediction markets give 48% odds of BTC above $100k. Current price: ~$77.5k.

The BSPG is a composite index measuring the gap between market sentiment and current Bitcoin price across 3 signals: prediction market divergence (40%), analyst target dispersion (35%), and on-chain overextension (25%). Current score: 32/100 (ELEVATED).

Polymarket gives 12% odds of BTC above $150k by end of 2026, while Kalshi gives 10%. For the $100k threshold: Polymarket 48%, Kalshi 44%.

The MVRV Z-Score is currently 0.4 (Near fair value). This metric compares market value to realized value — readings above 7 historically signal cycle tops, while readings below 0 signal cycle bottoms.

As of 2026-04-17T22:37:02Z, prediction markets give the following odds for BTC above $100k by end of 2026: Polymarket 48%, Kalshi 44% (divergence: 4pp). Current BTC price is ~$77,468, which is 29% below the $100k threshold. Sources: Polymarket public API and Kalshi public API. Research purposes only — not investment advice.

As of 2026-04-17T22:37:02Z, prediction markets give the following odds for BTC above $150k by end of 2026: Polymarket 12%, Kalshi 10% (divergence: 2pp). Reaching $150k from ~$77,468 would require a 94% gain. Research purposes only.

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM) — it operates under direct CFTC oversight and is authorized to offer event contracts to US participants. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform; its availability and regulatory status for US participants varies and has been subject to ongoing legal and regulatory developments. AhaSignals references both platforms for research purposes only. Users are responsible for verifying applicable regulations in their jurisdiction before trading on any prediction market platform.

Bitcoin's block reward halves approximately every 4 years (every 210,000 blocks). The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Historically, BTC has reached a cycle peak 12–18 months after each halving. The 2026 cycle peak occurred in October 2025 at ~$126,080, and BTC has since corrected approximately 39% to ~$77,468. This correction is broadly consistent with historical post-halving cycle patterns.

MVRV Z-Score = (Market Cap − Realized Cap) / Standard Deviation of (Market Cap − Realized Cap). Market Cap is the current price × circulating supply. Realized Cap is the sum of all UTXOs valued at the price when they last moved — a proxy for the aggregate cost basis of all BTC holders. Current MVRV Z-Score: 0.4 (Near fair value). Readings above 7 have historically marked cycle tops; readings below 0 have marked cycle bottoms. The current reading suggests BTC is near fair value relative to its realized cost basis. Source: public blockchain data.

The BSPG components update at different cadences: prediction market odds update near real-time (< 15 min lag via API polling); analyst targets update periodically as published (days to weeks lag); on-chain metrics update daily (~24 hour lag). The composite BSPG score is recalculated whenever any component is updated. The current snapshot is as of Apr 17, 2026. See the Data Freshness timeline on this page for details.

No. This page is for informational and research purposes only. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, including the potential loss of all invested capital. The BSPG index is an experimental research tool — it does not predict future Bitcoin prices. Prediction market odds reflect crowd sentiment, not guaranteed outcomes. Analyst targets are point estimates with wide uncertainty ranges. AhaSignals is not a registered investment advisor. Users are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.

As of Feb 26, 2026, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score is 0.41 (Near fair value). This places BTC in the fair value zone — neither overextended nor at a capitulation bottom. Historically, readings above 7 have marked cycle tops (e.g., Nov 2021, Dec 2017) and readings below 0 have marked cycle bottoms (e.g., Nov 2022, Dec 2018). The current post-halving reading is consistent with mid-cycle consolidation. Source: public blockchain data. Methodology: v0.1-beta. Research use only — not investment advice.

An MVRV Z-Score below 1 indicates that Bitcoin's market capitalization is trading close to or below its realized capitalization — the aggregate cost basis of all holders. In the post-April 2024 halving cycle, a reading of 0.41 suggests the market has largely reset from the October 2025 peak (~$126k). Historical analogues: MVRV Z-Score was near 0 in January 2023 (post-FTX bottom) and briefly negative in November 2022. The current reading does not signal imminent capitulation, but also does not indicate the overextension seen at cycle tops. Limitations: MVRV is backward-looking and does not account for changes in holder composition or macro regime shifts.

As of April 2026, Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score is 0.41 (Near fair value) and NUPL is 0.28 (Hope / Fear). Both metrics independently confirm a fair-value / mild-fear zone. MVRV Z-Score measures the deviation of market cap from realized cap in standard deviation units; NUPL measures the ratio of unrealized profit to total market cap. When both metrics align in the 0–1 range (MVRV) and 0.25–0.50 range (NUPL), it historically suggests the market is in a recovery phase rather than at an extreme. Neither metric predicts direction — they audit the current on-chain reality versus the narrative implied by Wall Street targets ($95k–$180k range).

This is the core structured disagreement AhaSignals tracks. On-chain reality (MVRV Z-Score: 0.41, NUPL: 0.28) signals BTC is near fair value relative to its realized cost basis. Wall Street consensus targets range from $95k (JPMorgan) to $180k (VanEck) — implying 50%–183% upside from current levels (~$77.5k). Prediction markets (Polymarket: 48% for >$100k) sit between these extremes. The BSPG composite score (32/100, ELEVATED) quantifies this divergence. We do not predict which narrative is correct — we audit the fragility of the consensus.

Bitcoin trades 24/7, making it the first major asset to react to weekend geopolitical events. Historical responses have been inconsistent: BTC sold off approximately 15% during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine escalation (risk-asset behavior) but rallied approximately 5% during the January 2020 Soleimani strike (brief safe-haven behavior). The BSPG macro sensitivity component tracks Bitcoin real-time correlation regime with traditional risk assets. When BTC drops alongside equity futures while gold rises, it confirms risk-asset classification. When BTC rises with gold, the digital gold thesis gains empirical support. This is a behavioral audit, not a prediction of Bitcoin geopolitical response.

The empirical evidence does not support a consistent safe-haven classification for Bitcoin during military escalation. Gold has a multi-century track record of appreciating during geopolitical crises. Bitcoin track record spans only approximately 15 years and shows mixed results: it has occasionally rallied during banking crises (2023 SVB) but more frequently sold off during geopolitical shocks as leveraged positions are unwound. The BSPG tracks this in real time through its macro sensitivity component, and the GBDI (Gold-Bitcoin Divergence Index) directly measures whether the market is treating BTC as a safe haven or risk asset in the current regime.