IMPORTANT: THIS IS NOT A PORTFOLIO MODEL. This tracker measures consensus fragility around the 10-Year Treasury yield. It does not forecast yield direction. It does not express directional views on any asset class. It is general and impersonal. It is not tailored to any individual investor's objectives, risk tolerance, or circumstances. AhaSignals is not a registered investment adviser. For investment decisions, consult a qualified financial professional.

10-Year Treasury Yield Tracker

SPF Consensus · Treasury Curve · COT Positioning · TYFI Beta

Quick Answer

TYFI is 42/100 (ELEVATED). 10Y yield today: 4.26% (Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve). SPF TBOND consensus (T+1): mean 4.25% / median 4.30%. Key readings: SPF dispersion 41/100 · Market-SPF gap 1/100 · COT crowding 84/100.

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QUICK ANSWER · AS OF Apr 17, 2026

What is the 10-year Treasury yield forecast for 2026?

The 10Y Treasury yield is 4.26% as of the latest Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve. The Philadelphia Fed SPF TBOND consensus for 2026 is 4.25% (mean). Wall Street year-end targets range from 3.00% to 4.53%. TYFI fragility score: 42/100 (ELEVATED).

10Y Yield

4.26%

SPF Mean

4.25%

Wall St Range

3.00%–4.53%

TYFI

42/100 (ELEVATED)

The gap between market yield (4.26%) and SPF consensus (4.25%) scores 1/100 on our fragility scale. COT crowding at 84/100 adds repricing risk that consensus forecasts may not capture.

Treasury Yield Fragility Index (TYFI) — Beta
42/100
ELEVATED
Composite of SPF dispersion + market–SPF gap + COT crowding. Higher = more fragile consensus.
10Y yield
4.26%
as of 2026-04-17T17:00:00-05:00
0 LOW25 ELEVATED50 HIGH75 CRITICAL100
Component Breakdown — tyfi.v0.1.0-beta
SPF Forecast Dispersion
SPF TBOND D1 = 0.62pp (survey: 2025 Q4). Higher IQR = wider professional disagreement about the 10Y yield path.
41
40% wt
Market vs SPF Gap
10Y market yield (4.26%) is 1bps above SPF T+1 (2026 Q1) mean (4.25%). SPF is quarterly average; market is daily spot.
1
30% wt
COT Crowding
CFTC TFF (code 043602): lev-money net short at 8th percentile (5y). extreme short positioning — crowding score 84/100.
84
30% wt
Treasury Yield Curve — as of 2026-04-17T17:00:00-05:00
2Y
3.71%
10Y
4.26%
30Y
4.88%
10Y–2Y
55bps
10Y–3M spread: 56bps
Source: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (XML feed, from 1990)
SPF TBOND Consensus — 2025 Q4 (quarterly average, NSA)
SPF Mean (T+1)
4.25%
SPF Median (T+1)
4.30%
IQR (D1)
0.62pp
Market–SPF gap: +1bps — market 10Y (4.26%) is 1bps above SPF T+1 mean (4.25%). SPF is a quarterly average; market is a daily spot — gap reflects both timing and genuine disagreement.
SPF TBOND = quarterly average, not seasonally adjusted. Survey released 2025-11-15. This is the latest available SPF survey; the next release is expected approximately two months after the current quarter ends. Source: Philadelphia Fed SPF.
COT Positioning — CFTC TFF Futures Only (code 043602)
Lev Money Net
-1522k
net short
5Y Percentile
8th
Crowding Score
84/100
Extreme net short positioning (8th percentile of 5-year range). Historically, positioning this extreme has preceded sharp short-covering episodes, though timing is uncertain.
CFTC TFF Futures Only, contract 043602 (UST 10Y NOTE). As-of 2026-03-20T17:27:17-05:00 (Tuesday data, released Friday).

Wall Street 10Y Yield Targets — Year-End 2026

Institution 10Y YE 2026
Goldman Sachs 4.20%
JPMorgan 3.00%
Morgan Stanley 4.00%
Bank of America 4.50%
Citigroup 3.90%
Deutsche Bank 4.53%
Barclays 4.25%
UBS 3.75%
Consensus avg 4.02%

Reference only — not used in TYFI index scoring. Wall Street targets are year-end point forecasts. SPF TBOND (above) is a quarterly average — these are not directly comparable. Hover over "Source ↗" links for methodology notes. Some reports may be behind registration walls.

Key Macro Drivers

Fed Rate Path (High weight)
Markets price 1–2 Fed cuts in 2026, which would compress the short end and potentially steepen the curve. The 75bps gap between CME futures and the Dot Plot median creates fragility in rate expectations.
Inflation Trajectory (High weight)
Core PCE remains above the 2% target. Sticky services inflation limits the Fed's ability to cut, keeping the 10Y elevated relative to SPF consensus.
Treasury Supply / Fiscal Deficit (High weight)
Record Treasury issuance to fund the fiscal deficit creates structural upward pressure on yields. Term premium has risen from near-zero to approximately 50bps.
AI Productivity / PDH Hypothesis (Medium weight)
If AI-driven productivity raises the neutral rate (r*), the long-run equilibrium for 10Y yields may be higher than pre-AI estimates. See FRFI page for the PDH framework.
Foreign Demand (Japan / China) (Medium weight)
BOJ yield curve control exit has reduced Japanese demand for US Treasuries. Chinese reserve diversification adds structural selling pressure.
Recession Risk (Medium weight)
A recession scenario would trigger a flight-to-safety rally in Treasuries, compressing yields. The 10Y–3M spread has inverted before each of the seven U.S. recessions since 1970, though with variable lead times (6–24 months).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the 10-year Treasury yield today? ▾
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.26% as of Apr 17, 2026, from the U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates XML feed. The 10Y–2Y spread is 55bps and the 10Y–3M spread is 56bps.
What is the 10-year Treasury yield forecast for 2026? ▾
The Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) TBOND consensus for 2026 Q1 is a mean of 4.25% and median of 4.30% (quarterly average, not seasonally adjusted). Wall Street year-end 2026 targets range from 3.00% to 4.53% with an average of 4.02%. This is research only and not investment advice.
What is SPF TBOND and what does it measure? ▾
SPF TBOND is the Survey of Professional Forecasters' forecast for the 10-year Treasury bond rate, published quarterly by the Philadelphia Fed. It is reported as a quarterly average and is not seasonally adjusted. It provides a stable institutional consensus anchor for rates, distinct from daily market pricing.
What is TYFI (Treasury Yield Fragility Index)? ▾
TYFI is AhaSignals' composite measure of rates consensus fragility. In v0.1-beta, it combines SPF forecast dispersion (40%), market-vs-SPF gap (30%), and COT crowding (30%) into a single 0–100 score. The current reading is 42/100 (ELEVATED). Higher scores indicate more fragile consensus and greater potential for sharp yield moves.
What is COT crowding in Treasury futures? ▾
COT (Commitments of Traders) shows positioning in Treasury futures by trader category. AhaSignals uses the CFTC Traders in Financial Futures (TFF), futures-only report for UST 10Y NOTE (contract code 043602). Leveraged money (hedge funds) net position is currently -1522k contracts at the 8th percentile of the 5-year range — a crowding score of 84/100.
Why is the yield curve inverted? ▾
The 10Y–3M spread is currently 56bps. A negative 10Y–3M spread historically signals that bond markets expect the Fed to cut rates to address an economic slowdown. The 10Y–2Y spread is 55bps. Yield curve inversions have preceded every U.S. recession since 1970, though with variable lead times.
How does the 10Y yield affect gold prices? ▾
Rising real Treasury yields (nominal yield minus inflation expectations) typically create headwinds for gold, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. However, if yields rise due to fiscal dominance fears or loss of confidence in the dollar, gold can rise alongside yields — a breakdown of the traditional inverse relationship tracked on the AhaSignals Gold Forecast Tracker.
How often do TYFI components update? ▾
Treasury yield curve: daily (business days). COT TFF futures-only: weekly (as-of Tuesday, released Friday). SPF TBOND: quarterly. The page shows each component's timestamp and uses last-known-good values when a source is inherently lower frequency.
What are FRED DGS10, DGS2, and DGS30? ▾
FRED DGS10, DGS2, and DGS30 are the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series for daily Treasury constant maturity rates at 10-year, 2-year, and 30-year maturities respectively. As of 2026-04-17, DGS10 is 4.26%, DGS2 is 3.71%, and DGS30 is 4.88%. These are sourced from the U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates and published by the St. Louis Fed. The 10Y–2Y spread is 55bps. AhaSignals uses these series as inputs to the TYFI fragility index.
Is TYFI a trading signal or investment advice? ▾
No. TYFI is a research and educational indicator. It measures fragility and disagreement in rates consensus, not a guaranteed direction for yields. Many factors beyond these three components can drive Treasury yields. This page is for informational purposes only.
What is the relationship between TYFI and FRFI? ▾
FRFI (Fed Rate Fragility Index) measures disagreement about the Fed Funds rate path (Dot Plot vs CME futures vs Kalshi). TYFI measures fragility in the 10Y Treasury yield consensus (SPF vs market vs COT). They are complementary: FRFI captures policy rate uncertainty, while TYFI captures how that uncertainty transmits to the long end of the curve. The transmission chain is: FRFI → Treasury yields → financial conditions → DXY → Gold/Silver.

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Methodology & Data Sources

Treasury curve: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (XML feed, daily_treasury_yield_curve), available from 1990. Source: home.treasury.gov.

SPF TBOND: Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, TBOND series. Quarterly average, not seasonally adjusted. Dispersion = D1 (IQR, P75–P25) from SPF cross-sectional dispersion file. Source: philadelphiafed.org.

COT: CFTC Traders in Financial Futures (TFF), Futures Only. Contract code 043602 = UST 10Y NOTE (CBT). As-of Tuesday, released Friday. Source: cftc.gov.

TYFI v0.1.0-beta: SPF dispersion (40%) + market–SPF gap (30%) + COT crowding (30%). Composite = Σ(live_weight × score), rounded. Bucket thresholds: LOW <25, ELEVATED 25–49, HIGH 50–74, CRITICAL ≥75.

Our fragility scores are calculated using the open-source AhaSignals Protocol. View v1.0.0-beta Logic on GitHub ↗

This page is for educational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. All data is delayed or manually curated.

APRIL 2026 AUDIT

April 2026 Macro Fragility Correlation Map

Rate expectations, fiscal stress, and cross-asset signals are showing elevated correlation in April 2026. This audit maps the Q2–Q3 transmission channels across the AhaSignals tracker network.

GOLD

Gold Consensus — Safe-Haven Demand Signal

Gold consensus dispersion in April 2026 reflects institutional uncertainty about the rate path. When LBMA analyst targets widen, it signals macro regime ambiguity.

YIELDS

10Y Treasury Yield — Survey vs Reality

TYFI captures the gap between SPF survey expectations and market-implied yields. In April 2026, this divergence is a leading indicator for rate fragility.

DOLLAR

Dollar Index — Consensus Divergence

DCDI measures EUR/USD consensus divergence. Dollar strength or weakness in April 2026 transmits directly to commodity pricing and emerging market stress.

EQUITY

S&P 500 Concentration — Breadth Risk

ACRI tracks market breadth deterioration. In April 2026, concentration risk amplifies the impact of rate surprises on equity valuations.

Last consensus audit performed on April 18, 2026. Correlation signals update with each tracker build cycle.