Ethereum–Nasdaq Correlation 2026: ETH Divergence Tracker
Is Ethereum decoupling from tech stocks? We track the ETH-Nasdaq correlation, ratio deviation, regime shifts, and momentum spreads. Research-only.
Last updated: Apr 8, 2026 · ETH: $2,209 · QQQ: $488 · 30D Corr: 0.65
QUICK ANSWER · AS OF Apr 8, 2026
What is the ETH-Nasdaq correlation in 2026?
The ETH-Nasdaq 30D correlation is 0.65 (90D baseline: 0.55). ENDI: 42/100 (ELEVATED). ETH at $2,209, QQQ at $488. Current regime: ETH ↓ / NDX ↓ — Broad risk-off.
30D Correlation
0.65
Baseline
0.55
Regime
ETH ↓ / NDX ↓
ENDI
42/100 (ELEVATED)
ETH is trading as a high-beta tech proxy with ~2x downside amplification. Crypto-specific headwinds (L2 competition, declining gas revenue) are compounding the macro selloff.
ENDI 42/100 — ETH/QQQ ratio at 4.53 vs 3y avg 5.8 — significant underperformance. 30D correlation 0.65 confirms risk-asset linkage. ETH-specific headwinds amplifying macro drawdown.
30D Corr
0.65
Baseline
0.55
Regime
ETH ↓ / NDX ↓
ENDI Composite Score
Ratio Deviation (40%)
73/100
ETH/QQQ ratio at 4.53 (3y avg: 5.80, below by 22%).
Correlation Break (35%)
20/100
30D correlation: 0.65 (baseline: 0.55). Correlation is rising — break magnitude: 0.10.
Relative Momentum Spread (25%)
23/100
30D spread: -9.3pp (ETH: -12.5%, QQQ: -3.2%). QQQ outperforming.
Rolling Correlation — ETH vs Nasdaq
ETH and Nasdaq are both risk assets with a positive correlation that strengthens during macro-driven regimes. When the correlation drops, crypto-specific factors are dominating.
| Window | Correlation | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.65 | Elevated — risk-asset linkage |
| 90D | 0.52 | Moderate positive |
| 180D | 0.48 | Weakening — crypto-specific factors |
| 90D Baseline | 0.55 | Reference baseline |
ETH-Nasdaq Regime Map
ETH ↑ / NDX ↑
Risk-on rally
ETH ↓ / NDX ↑
Crypto underperformance
ETH ↑ / NDX ↓
Crypto-specific rally
ETH ↓ / NDX ↓
Broad risk-off
← CURRENT
Current regime
ETH ↓ / NDX ↓
Historical frequency
25%
Avg duration
3.8 mo
30D spread
-9.3pp
Both ETH and Nasdaq are declining, but ETH is falling much faster (-35% YTD vs -7.4% for QQQ). This confirms ETH's role as a high-beta risk asset — it amplifies Nasdaq moves in both directions. The ETH/QQQ ratio has compressed from ~5.8 (3y avg) to 4.53, reflecting ETH's relative underperformance.
Divergence Drivers — Context Only (Not Scored)
ETH faces unique headwinds: L2 competition fragmenting value accrual, DeFi regulatory uncertainty, and declining gas revenue post-Dencun upgrade. These factors can decouple ETH from Nasdaq.
In broad risk-on/risk-off regimes, ETH and Nasdaq tend to move together as both are risk assets. Fed policy and liquidity conditions drive both.
ETF flows, protocol upgrades, DeFi exploits, and regulatory actions can move ETH independently of Nasdaq.
As institutional investors treat ETH as a tech allocation, its correlation with Nasdaq increases.
Historical Divergence Episodes
| Period | Regime | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2021 | ETH ↑ / NDX ↑ | ETH hit $4,878; Nasdaq at all-time highs. Peak risk-on correlation. |
| 2022 | ETH ↓ / NDX ↓ | ETH fell 67%; Nasdaq fell 33%. ETH showed ~2x beta to Nasdaq. |
| Mar 2024 | ETH ↑ / NDX ↑ | ETH surged on spot ETF expectations; Nasdaq also rallied on AI optimism. |
| Q1 2026 | ETH ↓ / NDX ↓ | ETH -35% YTD vs QQQ -7.4%. ETH/QQQ ratio compressed to 4.53. |
Macro Context
DXY
97.5
10Y Real Yield
1.78%
VIX
19.9
ETH Drawdown
-54.7%
ETH is trading as a high-beta tech proxy with ~2x downside amplification relative to Nasdaq. The 30D correlation of 0.65 confirms the risk-asset linkage. ETH-specific headwinds (L2 competition, declining gas revenue) are compounding the macro selloff.
Data Freshness
| Source | Cadence | Lag | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH Spot (public) | 24/7 | Real-time | Apr 8, 2026 |
| NDX/QQQ (derived) | End of day | ~24 hours | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Correlation | Recalculated daily | ~24 hours | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Returns / Regime | Recalculated daily | ~24 hours | Apr 8, 2026 |
Methodology — ENDI v0.1-beta
1) Ratio Deviation (40%)
score = min(|ETH_QQQ_ratio − baseline_3y| / (baseline_3y × 0.30) × 100, 100)
A 30% deviation from the 3-year average ETH/QQQ ratio = score of 100.
2) Correlation Break (35%)
score = min(|corr_30d − corr_90d_baseline| / 0.5 × 100, 100)
A 0.5 shift from the 90D baseline correlation = score of 100.
3) Relative Momentum Spread (25%)
score = min(|spread_30d| / 40 × 100, 100)
A 40pp 30D return spread between ETH and QQQ = score of 100.
Signal thresholds: LOW (0–24) · ELEVATED (25–49) · HIGH (50–74) · CRITICAL (75–100)
Known limitations: ETH/QQQ ratio is price-based (not market-cap adjusted); correlation is backward-looking; crypto markets trade 24/7 while Nasdaq trades US hours only; v0.1-beta does not account for ETH staking yield or Nasdaq earnings growth.
Version: v0.1-beta · Research use only — not a trading signal.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the ETH-Nasdaq correlation? ▾
Ethereum and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are both risk assets that tend to move together in macro-driven regimes. The current 30D correlation is 0.65 (90D baseline: 0.55). When correlation is high, ETH trades as a leveraged tech proxy; when it breaks down, crypto-specific factors are dominating.
Why does ETH underperform Nasdaq in selloffs? ▾
ETH historically exhibits ~2x beta to Nasdaq on the downside. In 2022, Nasdaq fell 33% while ETH fell 67%. In Q1 2026, QQQ is down ~7.4% YTD while ETH is down ~35%. This amplification occurs because ETH has lower liquidity, higher leverage in the ecosystem, and faces crypto-specific headwinds (L2 competition, regulatory uncertainty) that compound macro selloffs.
What is ETH beta to tech stocks? ▾
ETH's beta to Nasdaq varies by regime. In risk-on environments, ETH beta is typically 1.5–2.5x (ETH moves 1.5–2.5% for every 1% Nasdaq move). In risk-off environments, the beta can exceed 3x on the downside. The current ETH/QQQ ratio of 4.53 vs the 3-year average of 5.8 reflects significant ETH underperformance.
How does ENDI differ from BNRDI (BTC-Nasdaq)? ▾
ENDI tracks ETH-Nasdaq divergence while BNRDI tracks BTC-Nasdaq divergence. ETH has higher beta and more crypto-specific risk factors (DeFi, L2 competition, gas revenue) compared to BTC, which increasingly trades as a macro/store-of-value asset. ENDI captures the "altcoin premium" divergence that BNRDI misses.
Is this a trading signal? ▾
No. Research-only. ENDI quantifies correlation regime shifts between ETH and Nasdaq; it does not provide investment advice.
📎 Cite This Data ▾
APA 7th Edition
AhaSignals. (2026). ETH–Nasdaq Divergence Index (ENDI). Retrieved April 18, 2026, from https://ahasignals.com/eth-nasdaq-divergence-tracker/
Methodology: v0.1-beta
Data as-of: Apr 8, 2026
Research purposes only. Not investment advice. All index inputs from free, public, clickable sources.
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This page is for informational and research purposes only — not investment advice. Cryptocurrency and equity markets are volatile. Past correlation patterns do not predict future performance. ENDI methodology version: v0.1-beta. © 2026 AhaSignals. All rights reserved.