AI Labor Disruption Tracker (ALDI)
QUICK ANSWER · Jan 2026
The AI Labor Disruption Index (ALDI) currently reads 55/100 (moderate) as of Jan 2026. AI-attributed job cuts represent 6.51% of all announced cuts (3,243 of 49,795) per Challenger data. Initial jobless claims stand at 242,000 (Week ending 2026-02-22).
Note: Computed from 1 of 2 components; Labor Churn Stress excluded due to data expiry.
"We do not infer intent. We track observable proxies."
QUICK ANSWER · AS OF Jan 2026
How many jobs have been cut due to AI in 2026?
ALDI reads 55/100 (moderate) as of Jan 2026. AI-attributed cuts: 3,243 of 49,795 total (6.51%) per Challenger data. Initial claims: 242,000. Info sector MoM: -12K. Methodology: v0.1-beta.
ALDI Composite
55/100
AI Cut Share
6.51%
Initial Claims
242,000
Info Sector MoM
-12K
ALDI tracks observable proxies of AI-attributed labor disruption — it cannot verify causality.
"We do not infer intent. We track observable proxies."
Scoring inputs: public clickable sources only. Paywalled sources: reference only.
SCORED COMPONENTS
AI-attributed cuts: 3,243 of 49,795 total (6.51% AI share, Jan 2026). YoY: +173.2%.
Initial claims: 242,000 (Week ending 2026-02-22). Info sector MoM: -12K. UNRATE: 4.1% (3mo Δ: 0pp).
SCORE COMPOSITION
These estimates measure different constructs and are not scored in v0.1-beta. Dispersion scoring deferred to v0.2 when same-metricType, same-geography, same-horizon estimates from 3+ institutions are available.
▸ Methodology & Data Sources
AI Job Cut Intensity (55%) — Level-based normalization of Challenger AI-attributed cut share (aiSharePct), with YoY momentum modifier (±10–15 pts). Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas monthly press releases.
Labor Churn Stress (45%) — Weighted blend: Initial Claims Level (40%), Information Sector Trend (35%), Unemployment Rate Momentum (25%). Sources: FRED ICSA, FRED USINFO, FRED UNRATE.
Institutional Consensus Landscape — Display only. WEF measures "disruption", IMF measures "exposure", OECD measures "automation risk" — these are not interchangeable and are not scored in v0.1-beta.
v0.2 roadmap: percentile-based normalization once 12+ months of historical data is available.
AI layoffs tracker (Challenger AI-cited job cuts)
CURRENT READING · Jan 2026
3,243 job cuts were attributed to "Artificial Intelligence (AI)" in Jan 2026, representing 6.51% of all 49,795 announced cuts. Year-over-year change: +173.2%.
Limitation: Challenger data captures announced cuts only, not actual separations. AI attribution is employer-reported and may reflect narrative framing.
Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas — January 2026 Job Cuts Report ·
Match rule: v1.0:exact:Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Initial jobless claims (weekly) — labor churn context
CURRENT READING · Week ending 2026-02-22
Initial jobless claims (FRED ICSA, seasonally adjusted): 242,000. 4-week average: 224,250.
Limitation: Initial claims measure new unemployment filings, not AI-specific displacement. Used as a macro labor churn signal only.
Source: DOL / FRED ICSA · Week ending 2026-02-22
Information sector employment (USINFO) — tech labor proxy
CURRENT READING · Jan 2026
All Employees, Information (NAICS 51, FRED USINFO, seasonally adjusted): MoM change -12K in Jan 2026.
Limitation: NAICS 51 (Information) is a proxy for AI-exposed tech employment, not a direct measure of AI displacement. Includes software, data processing, and telecommunications.
Source: BLS CES / FRED USINFO · Jan 2026
Unemployment rate momentum (UNRATE) — recession sensitivity
CURRENT READING · Jan 2026
Civilian Unemployment Rate (FRED UNRATE): 4.1% in Jan 2026. 3-month change: 0pp.
Limitation: UNRATE reflects all unemployment causes, not AI-specific displacement. Used as a macro sensitivity signal.
Source: BLS CPS / FRED UNRATE · Jan 2026
Institutional consensus landscape (display only)
WEF, IMF, and OECD publish AI employment impact estimates, but they measure fundamentally different constructs. These are displayed for context only and are not scored in ALDI v0.1-beta.
Dispersion scoring deferred to v0.2 when same-metricType, same-geography, same-horizon estimates from 3+ institutions are available.
Wall Street & consulting outlook
Reference only — not used in index scoring.
| Institution | Direction | Horizon | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| McKinsey Global Institute | significant displacement with partial offset from new roles | by 2030 | Public |
| Goldman Sachs | net job displacement in short term, new roles in medium term | 10-year horizon | Public |
| Brookings Institution | mixed — high-skill workers more exposed than previously thought | near-term | Public |
Sector lens audit pages
Drill into BLS/FRED sector employment data for specific industries, combined with shared Challenger AI-cited cuts and macro churn signals.
Can ALDI prove AI caused layoffs? (What it can and cannot do)
No. ALDI audits observable proxies — specifically, employer-reported reason codes from Challenger job cut announcements. It cannot verify causality. AI attribution is self-reported and may reflect narrative framing ("AI-washing").
Limitation: ALDI tracks what is reported, not what is verified. This is an audit tool, not a causal inference engine.
Related Trackers
Frequently asked questions
What is the AI Labor Disruption Index (ALDI)?
How many jobs have been cut due to AI in 2026?
Can ALDI prove AI caused layoffs?
What is the current initial jobless claims level?
What does the Information sector employment trend show?
Methodology (v0.1-beta)
AI Job Cut Intensity (55%)
Level-based normalization of Challenger AI-attributed cut share (aiSharePct): <5% → 0–35, 5–15% → 35–70, >15% → 70–100. YoY momentum modifier: +0–15 pts (positive YoY), −0–10 pts (negative YoY). Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas monthly press releases. Match rule: v1.0:exact:Artificial Intelligence (AI).
Labor Churn Stress (45%)
Weighted blend of three sub-signals: Initial Claims Level (40%, FRED ICSA), Information Sector Trend (35%, FRED USINFO), Unemployment Rate Momentum (25%, FRED UNRATE). +10 bonus for 2+ consecutive negative info sector months.
Known Limitations
- Challenger data captures announced cuts only, not actual separations
- AI attribution is employer-reported and may be overstated ("AI-washing"); ALDI audits reported reasons, not verified causality
- Only the exact category "Artificial Intelligence (AI)" is matched in v1.0; additional categories require explicit documentation before inclusion
- Information sector (NAICS 51) is a proxy for AI-exposed employment, not a direct measure
- Institutional Consensus Landscape (WEF/IMF/OECD) measures different constructs and is display-only in v0.1-beta
- v0.1-beta uses level-based thresholds; percentile-based normalization planned for v0.2
This is a labor market audit tool tracking observable proxies. Not employment advice. Not investment advice.
📎 Cite This Data ▾
APA 7th Edition
AhaSignals. (2026). . Retrieved April 18, 2026, from
Methodology:
Data as-of: Jan 2026
Research purposes only. Not investment advice. All index inputs from free, public, clickable sources.
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