AI Labor Disruption Tracker (ALDI)

QUICK ANSWER · Jan 2026

The AI Labor Disruption Index (ALDI) currently reads 55/100 (moderate) as of Jan 2026. AI-attributed job cuts represent 6.51% of all announced cuts (3,243 of 49,795) per Challenger data. Initial jobless claims stand at 242,000 (Week ending 2026-02-22).

Note: Computed from 1 of 2 components; Labor Churn Stress excluded due to data expiry.

"We do not infer intent. We track observable proxies."

QUICK ANSWER · AS OF Jan 2026

How many jobs have been cut due to AI in 2026?

ALDI reads 55/100 (moderate) as of Jan 2026. AI-attributed cuts: 3,243 of 49,795 total (6.51%) per Challenger data. Initial claims: 242,000. Info sector MoM: -12K. Methodology: v0.1-beta.

ALDI Composite

55/100

AI Cut Share

6.51%

Initial Claims

242,000

Info Sector MoM

-12K

ALDI tracks observable proxies of AI-attributed labor disruption — it cannot verify causality.

55
ALDI Score
MODERATE
6.51%
AI Cut Share
Jan 2026
242K
Initial Claims
Week ending 2026-02-22
-12K
Info Sector MoM
Jan 2026
ALDI v0.1-beta 1/2 components active
55 /100 moderate

"We do not infer intent. We track observable proxies."

Data as of: Jan 2026
Claims as of: Week ending 2026-02-22
⚠ Excluded (expired): Labor Churn Stress — weights renormalized.
DATA FRESHNESS
Challenger AI Cuts
Jan 2026 · Monthly STALE
Initial Claims (ICSA)
Week ending 2026-02-22 · Weekly EXPIRED
BLS Info Sector (USINFO)
Jan 2026 · Monthly EXPIRED

Scoring inputs: public clickable sources only. Paywalled sources: reference only.

SCORED COMPONENTS

AI Job Cut Intensity (55%) STALE
55/100

AI-attributed cuts: 3,243 of 49,795 total (6.51% AI share, Jan 2026). YoY: +173.2%.

Labor Churn Stress (45%) EXPIRED
29/100

Initial claims: 242,000 (Week ending 2026-02-22). Info sector MoM: -12K. UNRATE: 4.1% (3mo Δ: 0pp).

SCORE COMPOSITION

30
55%
55
ALDI
INSTITUTIONAL CONSENSUS LANDSCAPE DISPLAY ONLY

These estimates measure different constructs and are not scored in v0.1-beta. Dispersion scoring deferred to v0.2 when same-metricType, same-geography, same-horizon estimates from 3+ institutions are available.

Disruption
IMF Working Paper — AI and Employment
advanced_economies · current exposure 40–60%
Exposure
OECD Employment Outlook 2024
OECD · current risk assessment 27%
Automation Risk
▸ Methodology & Data Sources

AI Job Cut Intensity (55%) — Level-based normalization of Challenger AI-attributed cut share (aiSharePct), with YoY momentum modifier (±10–15 pts). Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas monthly press releases.

Labor Churn Stress (45%) — Weighted blend: Initial Claims Level (40%), Information Sector Trend (35%), Unemployment Rate Momentum (25%). Sources: FRED ICSA, FRED USINFO, FRED UNRATE.

Institutional Consensus Landscape — Display only. WEF measures "disruption", IMF measures "exposure", OECD measures "automation risk" — these are not interchangeable and are not scored in v0.1-beta.

v0.2 roadmap: percentile-based normalization once 12+ months of historical data is available.

AI layoffs tracker (Challenger AI-cited job cuts)

CURRENT READING · Jan 2026

3,243 job cuts were attributed to "Artificial Intelligence (AI)" in Jan 2026, representing 6.51% of all 49,795 announced cuts. Year-over-year change: +173.2%.

Limitation: Challenger data captures announced cuts only, not actual separations. AI attribution is employer-reported and may reflect narrative framing.

Monthly AI Cuts
3,243
Jan 2026
Total Cuts
49,795
Jan 2026
YTD AI Cuts
3,243
YTD Jan 2026

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas — January 2026 Job Cuts Report · Match rule: v1.0:exact:Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Initial jobless claims (weekly) — labor churn context

CURRENT READING · Week ending 2026-02-22

Initial jobless claims (FRED ICSA, seasonally adjusted): 242,000. 4-week average: 224,250.

Limitation: Initial claims measure new unemployment filings, not AI-specific displacement. Used as a macro labor churn signal only.

Source: DOL / FRED ICSA · Week ending 2026-02-22

Information sector employment (USINFO) — tech labor proxy

CURRENT READING · Jan 2026

All Employees, Information (NAICS 51, FRED USINFO, seasonally adjusted): MoM change -12K in Jan 2026.

Limitation: NAICS 51 (Information) is a proxy for AI-exposed tech employment, not a direct measure of AI displacement. Includes software, data processing, and telecommunications.

Source: BLS CES / FRED USINFO · Jan 2026

Unemployment rate momentum (UNRATE) — recession sensitivity

CURRENT READING · Jan 2026

Civilian Unemployment Rate (FRED UNRATE): 4.1% in Jan 2026. 3-month change: 0pp.

Limitation: UNRATE reflects all unemployment causes, not AI-specific displacement. Used as a macro sensitivity signal.

Source: BLS CPS / FRED UNRATE · Jan 2026

Institutional consensus landscape (display only)

WEF, IMF, and OECD publish AI employment impact estimates, but they measure fundamentally different constructs. These are displayed for context only and are not scored in ALDI v0.1-beta.

WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025 disruption · global · by 2030
IMF Working Paper — AI and Employment exposure · advanced_economies · current exposure
Range: 40–60%
OECD Employment Outlook 2024 automation_risk · OECD · current risk assessment
Estimate: 27%

Dispersion scoring deferred to v0.2 when same-metricType, same-geography, same-horizon estimates from 3+ institutions are available.

Wall Street & consulting outlook

Reference only — not used in index scoring.

Institution Direction Horizon Source
McKinsey Global Institute significant displacement with partial offset from new roles by 2030 Public
Goldman Sachs net job displacement in short term, new roles in medium term 10-year horizon Public
Brookings Institution mixed — high-skill workers more exposed than previously thought near-term Public

Sector lens audit pages

Drill into BLS/FRED sector employment data for specific industries, combined with shared Challenger AI-cited cuts and macro churn signals.

Can ALDI prove AI caused layoffs? (What it can and cannot do)

No. ALDI audits observable proxies — specifically, employer-reported reason codes from Challenger job cut announcements. It cannot verify causality. AI attribution is self-reported and may reflect narrative framing ("AI-washing").

Limitation: ALDI tracks what is reported, not what is verified. This is an audit tool, not a causal inference engine.

Related Trackers

Frequently asked questions

What is the AI Labor Disruption Index (ALDI)?
The AI Labor Disruption Index (ALDI) is a composite 0–100 score measuring observable proxies of AI-attributed labor market disruption. It combines AI Job Cut Intensity (55%, from Challenger data) and Labor Churn Stress (45%, from DOL/BLS). Current reading: 55/100 (moderate) as of Jan 2026. We do not infer intent. We track observable proxies.
How many jobs have been cut due to AI in 2026?
According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, 3,243 job cuts were attributed to "Artificial Intelligence (AI)" in Jan 2026, representing 6.51% of all announced cuts (49,795 total). Note: Challenger data captures announced cuts only, not actual separations. AI attribution is employer-reported and may reflect narrative framing.
Can ALDI prove AI caused layoffs?
No. ALDI audits observable proxies — specifically, employer-reported reason codes from Challenger job cut announcements. It cannot verify causality. AI attribution is self-reported by employers and may be overstated or used as narrative framing ("AI-washing"). ALDI tracks what is reported, not what is verified.
What is the current initial jobless claims level?
Initial jobless claims (FRED ICSA, seasonally adjusted) for the Week ending 2026-02-22: 242,000. The 4-week average is 224,250. Source: DOL via FRED (fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA).
What does the Information sector employment trend show?
The Information sector (NAICS 51, FRED USINFO) — a proxy for tech-heavy AI-exposed employment — changed by -12K month-over-month in Jan 2026 (seasonally adjusted). This sector includes software, data processing, and telecommunications workers.

Methodology (v0.1-beta)

AI Job Cut Intensity (55%)

Level-based normalization of Challenger AI-attributed cut share (aiSharePct): <5% → 0–35, 5–15% → 35–70, >15% → 70–100. YoY momentum modifier: +0–15 pts (positive YoY), −0–10 pts (negative YoY). Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas monthly press releases. Match rule: v1.0:exact:Artificial Intelligence (AI).

Labor Churn Stress (45%)

Weighted blend of three sub-signals: Initial Claims Level (40%, FRED ICSA), Information Sector Trend (35%, FRED USINFO), Unemployment Rate Momentum (25%, FRED UNRATE). +10 bonus for 2+ consecutive negative info sector months.

Known Limitations

  • Challenger data captures announced cuts only, not actual separations
  • AI attribution is employer-reported and may be overstated ("AI-washing"); ALDI audits reported reasons, not verified causality
  • Only the exact category "Artificial Intelligence (AI)" is matched in v1.0; additional categories require explicit documentation before inclusion
  • Information sector (NAICS 51) is a proxy for AI-exposed employment, not a direct measure
  • Institutional Consensus Landscape (WEF/IMF/OECD) measures different constructs and is display-only in v0.1-beta
  • v0.1-beta uses level-based thresholds; percentile-based normalization planned for v0.2

This is a labor market audit tool tracking observable proxies. Not employment advice. Not investment advice.

📎 Cite This Data

APA 7th Edition

AhaSignals. (2026). . Retrieved April 18, 2026, from

Methodology:

Data as-of: Jan 2026

Research purposes only. Not investment advice. All index inputs from free, public, clickable sources.

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