QUICK ANSWER PMDI CRITICAL

PMDI 100/100 — 2 extreme divergence signal(s) detected — consensus fragility elevated.

Avg Divergence

50.0%

Events Tracked

2

Combined Volume

$87.1M

↑ Top: Max divergence: 50.0% Data: Apr 17, 2026, 10:48 PM Pipeline: Apr 17, 2026, 10:48 PM v0.1-beta
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Prediction Market Arbitrage Scanner: Polymarket vs Kalshi Consensus Divergence

QUICK ANSWER · AS OF Apr 17, 2026, 10:48 PM

What is the current prediction market arbitrage opportunity between Polymarket and Kalshi in 2026?

As of Apr 17, 2026, 10:48 PM, the average cross-platform divergence across 2 tracked macro events is 50.0%. 2 event(s) show extreme divergence (>10%), signaling consensus fragility. PMDI composite: 100/100 (CRITICAL).

Avg Divergence

50.0%

Events Tracked

2

PMDI Score

100/100

Combined Volume

$87.1M

Unlike pure arbitrage scanners, AhaSignals tracks Polymarket-vs-Kalshi price gaps as consensus fragility signals. When crypto-native and institutional capital disagree on the same outcome, it reveals structural tension that historically precedes volatility.

This scanner tracks real-time price divergence between Polymarket and Kalshi for curated macro events. Unlike pure arbitrage tools that optimize for profit extraction, we analyze these gaps as consensus fragility signals — when crypto-native and institutional capital disagree on the same outcome, it reveals structural tension in market expectations.

The Prediction Market Divergence Index (PMDI) quantifies this tension on a 0–100 scale. Low scores indicate cross-platform consensus alignment; high scores signal fragility that historically precedes volatility in the underlying asset or policy outcome.

Live Arbitrage Scanner — Polymarket vs Kalshi

Event Polymarket Kalshi Divergence Net Spread Signal Volume
Fed Maintains Rate March 2026
Comparing "maintain rate" probability across platforms 		100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 46.5% extreme $0
Fed Rate Cut March 2026
Comparing "25bps cut" probability across platforms 		0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 46.5% extreme $87.1M

Fed Maintains Rate March 2026

Combined Consensus 0.0%
Platform Bias Crypto-native more bullish
Resolution Risk LOW
Liquidity Tier HIGH

⚠️ Low liquidity - expect high slippage

⚠️ Unusually high spread - verify both markets are active

Fed Rate Cut March 2026

Combined Consensus 0.0%
Platform Bias Institutional more bullish
Resolution Risk LOW
Liquidity Tier HIGH

⚠️ Unusually high spread - verify both markets are active

Data updated hourly via Polymarket Gamma API and Kalshi v2 API. Net spread accounts for ~3.5% estimated round-trip transaction costs. Last fetch: Apr 17, 2026, 10:48 PM. Not investment advice.

How the Arbitrage Scanner Works

The scanner compares event contract prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for identical or near-identical outcomes. The key metrics:

Divergence (Raw Spread)

Absolute difference in probability between platforms. A 5% divergence on "Fed holds rates" means one platform prices it 5 percentage points higher than the other.

Net Spread (After Fees)

Divergence minus estimated round-trip transaction costs (~3.5%). Only positive net spreads represent potential arbitrage. Most divergences are consumed by fees.

Signal Strength

Stable (<5%): consensus aligned. Moderate (5–10%): some disagreement. Extreme (>10%): consensus fragility — crypto-native and institutional capital fundamentally disagree.

PMDI Composite (0–100)

Prediction Market Divergence Index. Aggregates divergence across all tracked events into a single consensus fragility score. Higher = more fragile. Methodology: v0.1-beta.

We deliberately track a curated set of macro-relevant events (Fed decisions, rate expectations) rather than scanning all 1,000+ markets. This focuses the signal on events that matter for cross-asset analysis and reduces noise from low-liquidity or novelty markets.

Polymarket vs Kalshi: Platform Comparison

Feature Polymarket Kalshi
Regulation Offshore (not US-regulated) CFTC-regulated (US)
Participant Base Crypto-native, global Institutional, US-focused
Trading Hours 24/7 US market hours (extended)
Settlement USDC (on-chain) USD (bank transfer)
Typical Fees ~1-2% per trade ~1-3% per contract
Liquidity Higher on political/crypto events Higher on macro/economic events
KYC Required No (non-US) Yes (US residents)
API Access Gamma API (public) v2 API (public)

Platform details as of March 2026. Verify current terms on each platform before trading.

Related Analysis

TRACKER

Kalshi Consensus Thermometer

CDI/BSE framework applied to Kalshi macro markets. Real-time fragility gauges.

 RESEARCH

Prediction Market Arbitrage Strategies

Deep-dive research on cross-platform arbitrage mechanics and consensus dynamics.

 TRACKER

Fed Rate Fragility Index

Composite fragility score for Fed rate expectations. Integrates prediction market data.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is prediction market arbitrage?
Prediction market arbitrage occurs when the same event is priced differently on two platforms — for example, Polymarket pricing "Fed holds rates" at 100.0% while Kalshi prices it at 50.0%. The price gap (50.0%) can represent a risk-free profit opportunity if both contracts resolve identically. However, AhaSignals tracks these gaps primarily as consensus fragility signals: large divergences indicate that crypto-native capital (Polymarket) and institutional capital (Kalshi) disagree on outcomes, which historically precedes volatility.
How does this scanner differ from ArbBets or other arbitrage tools?
Most arbitrage scanners (ArbBets, ArbRadar, polyar.io) focus on finding profitable trades. AhaSignals frames the same data differently: we treat Polymarket-vs-Kalshi price gaps as a consensus divergence signal. When crypto-native and institutional capital disagree by more than 10%, it signals fragility in the broader market consensus — a leading indicator for volatility. Our scanner is free, research-focused, and integrated with our broader consensus fragility framework (CDI, BSE, DMS metrics).
How often does the arbitrage data update?
Data is fetched hourly via automated pipeline from Polymarket (Gamma API) and Kalshi (v2 API). Current snapshot: Apr 17, 2026, 10:48 PM. We track 2 curated events focused on macro-relevant outcomes (Fed decisions, rate expectations) rather than attempting to scan all 1,000+ markets.
What does "consensus fragility" mean in prediction markets?
Consensus fragility measures how vulnerable the current market consensus is to sudden reversal. In prediction markets, we measure this via cross-platform divergence: when Polymarket and Kalshi agree closely (divergence < 5%), consensus is stable. When they diverge significantly (> 10%), it signals that different capital pools interpret the same information differently — a fragile state that often precedes sharp price moves.
Is prediction market arbitrage risk-free?
Not entirely. While the price gap may appear risk-free, real-world frictions include: (1) transaction fees on both platforms (typically 1-3.5%), (2) resolution risk — platforms may interpret event outcomes differently, (3) liquidity risk — large orders move prices, (4) counterparty risk — platform solvency, (5) regulatory risk — Kalshi is CFTC-regulated while Polymarket operates offshore. Our scanner shows net spread after estimated fees to give a realistic view.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi prices differ?
Price differences arise from distinct participant pools: Polymarket attracts crypto-native traders (higher risk tolerance, global, 24/7 trading), while Kalshi serves US-regulated institutional participants (more conservative, US-hours bias). Information asymmetry, liquidity differences, and fee structures also contribute. Persistent divergence on the same event reveals genuine disagreement between these capital pools — not just noise.

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This scanner is provided for research and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss. AhaSignals does not facilitate trades on any platform. Data sourced from public APIs (Polymarket Gamma API, Kalshi v2 API). Platform comparison is informational — verify current terms before trading. PMDI methodology: v0.1-beta. © 2026 AhaSignals.