US Fiscal Fragility Index (UFFI) 2026
"We don't forecast fiscal collapse. We audit fiscal stress."
Measuring consensus fragility around US fiscal sustainability. UFFI synthesizes debt acceleration, deficit flow stress, and interest burden into a single composite score — revealing how vulnerable the current "debt is manageable" consensus is to narrative shifts and non-linear fiscal stress events. UFFI does not take a political position — it measures pressure inside the current consensus structure regardless of administration.
QUICK ANSWER · AS OF Feb 4, 2026
What is the US national debt in 2026?
Total US public debt is $38.56T. The 12-month rolling deficit is $1.83T (5.6% of GDP). Net interest annualizes to $1.044T. UFFI fiscal fragility score: 77/100 (CRITICAL).
Total Debt
$38.56T
Deficit/GDP
5.6%
Net Interest
$1.044T/yr
UFFI
77/100 (CRITICAL)
Wall Street deficit/GDP estimates range 5.2%–7.5% vs CBO baseline 5.8%. The gap between market consensus and official projections is a fragility signal — when it widens, the "debt is manageable" narrative is most vulnerable to correction.
UFFI 77/100 — The "soft landing + manageable debt" consensus exhibits critical fragility, driven primarily by rising interest burden and structurally large deficit flow.
Total Debt
$38.56T
Deficit/GDP
5.6%
Net Interest
$1.044T
DATA FRESHNESS
Debt to the Penny: as of Feb 4, 2026 (EOD) · LIVE
Monthly Treasury Statement: released Feb 12, 2026 · CURRENT
Marketable debt avg rate: Jan 2026 (JEC Senate) · CURRENT
CBO baseline: released Feb 11, 2026 · CURRENT
All data from free, public, clickable sources. Paywalled research shown for reference only, not used in scoring.
UFFI Score
77/100
CRITICAL
Total Debt
$38.56T
Debt to the Penny
Deficit/GDP
5.6%
12M Rolling
Net Interest
$1.044T
Annualized
US Fiscal Fragility Index (UFFI) — Beta
UFFI measures the structural fragility of consensus around US fiscal sustainability. Unlike a debt clock (which shows a single number), UFFI quantifies how fragile the "soft landing + manageable debt" narrative is — how vulnerable it is to a single CBO revision, weaker-than-expected auction demand, or political event that could trigger rapid repricing of fiscal risk across rates, the dollar, and risk assets.
US Fiscal Fragility Index (UFFI)
3/5 components live · Methodology v0.1-beta
77/100
🔴 CRITICAL
180D annualized debt growth 6.3% (decelerating) — 68th percentile of 3Y distribution. Total debt: $38.56T.
12M rolling deficit at 5.6% of GDP (below CBO baseline 5.8%). YoY deficit change: +15.3%.
Net interest consumes 19.5% of receipts and 14% of outlays. Annualized: $1.044T at 3.35% weighted avg rate.
COMING SOON (2 components)
📊 Funding Gap vs Dealer Consensus
TBAC primary dealer funding shortfall estimates vs current issuance pace
🏛️ Governance Probability
Kalshi/Polymarket shutdown and debt ceiling breach probabilities
📐 Methodology & Data Sources
UFFI synthesizes 3 independent signals into a composite measure of US fiscal consensus fragility. A higher score indicates greater vulnerability to narrative shifts around debt sustainability and fiscal stress events.
Debt Acceleration (30%): 3-year percentile of 180D annualized debt growth. Score = percentile (0–100). Source: Treasury Fiscal Data — Debt to the Penny (daily).
Deficit Flow Stress (25%): 12M rolling deficit/GDP × 15 + YoY acceleration bonus. Formula: min(deficit/GDP × 15 + yoyBonus, 100). Source: Monthly Treasury Statement.
Interest Burden (25%): Net interest as % of receipts × 4. Formula: min(interest/receipts × 4, 100). Source: Treasury Fiscal Data — Interest Expense.
Composite = Σ(weight_i × score_i) / Σ(weight_i). Signal thresholds: LOW <25, ELEVATED 25–49, HIGH 50–74, CRITICAL ≥75.
📌 Why consensus compression matters
Wall Street models are not lacking intelligence — the failure mode is consensus compression: when narratives converge faster than the underlying fiscal constraints move. When institutional forecasts cluster around "manageable deficit + growth absorbs debt," the system becomes more vulnerable to a single data release that breaks the narrative. UFFI tracks the pressure building inside that structure.
Debt Acceleration — Debt to the Penny
Not "how much debt" but "how fast is debt accelerating." The 180-day annualized growth rate captures whether debt issuance is entering a non-linear regime relative to its own recent history.
Total Public Debt
$38.56T
Held by Public
$30.96T
Intragov Holdings
$7.61T
180D Growth (Ann.)
6.3%
3Y Percentile
68th
Prev 180D Growth
7.1%
Source: Treasury Fiscal Data — Debt to the Penny · as of Feb 4, 2026 · Total Public Debt Outstanding (TPDO). Intragov holdings include FFB securities; debt held by public excludes FFB (per Treasury Fiscal Data notes).
Deficit Flow Stress — Monthly Treasury Statement
The 12-month rolling deficit captures the actual fiscal flow, compared against CBO's official baseline. When the actual path diverges from the baseline, it signals that the "manageable deficit" consensus may be under pressure. Note: the 12M rolling figure is a rolling-window stress gauge and is not directly comparable to CBO's fiscal-year baseline — they use different time windows.
12M Rolling Deficit
$1.83T
Deficit/GDP
5.6%
CBO Baseline
5.8%
FYTD Deficit
$0.697T
FYTD Receipts
$1.785T
YoY Deficit Δ
+15.3%
Source: Monthly Treasury Statement · CBO baseline: CBO Feb 2026 · as of Feb 12, 2026
Interest Burden — The Non-Linear Risk
Interest expense is the core driver of long-term fiscal stress. When interest consumes a growing share of receipts, the government must borrow more just to service existing debt — a self-reinforcing loop that CBO projects will push net interest to $2.1T by FY2036.
FYTD Gross Interest
$0.426T
Interest on public debt
FYTD Net Interest
$0.348T
Used for UFFI scoring
Annualized (Net)
$1.044T
% of Receipts
19.5%
Wtd Avg Rate
3.35%
CBO 2036 Proj.
$2.1T
📌 Net vs Gross Interest
Gross interest outlays (FYTD $0.426T) = total interest payments on the public debt (as reported by Treasury/Reuters). Net interest (FYTD $0.348T) = interest payments minus interest income. UFFI uses net interest because it better captures the fiscal pressure on discretionary budget space — the amount the government must pay beyond what it earns on its own assets.
Source: Treasury Fiscal Data — Interest Expense · as of Feb 12, 2026 · Net interest = interest payments minus interest income (per CBO/BPC convention). Gross interest outlays (FYTD $0.426T per Reuters/Treasury) is larger because it includes interest paid to government trust funds. UFFI uses net interest as it better captures fiscal pressure on discretionary budget space. Weighted avg rate is for total marketable debt (Jan 2026).
Wall Street vs Official Fiscal Outlook 2026
Institutional forecasts for US fiscal metrics compared against CBO and IMF baselines. The spread between Wall Street's optimistic consensus and official projections is itself a fragility signal — when the gap widens, the market is more exposed to a narrative correction.
Consensus range: Deficit/GDP 5.2%–7.5% (avg 6.1%). CBO baseline: 5.8%. IMF: 7–8%.
| Institution | Deficit/GDP | Debt/GDP | Interest/GDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO (Official Baseline) (Official) | 5.8% | 100.7% | 3.1% |
| IMF (Official) | 7.5% | 123% | 3.4% |
| Goldman Sachs | 5.2% | 99% | 2.9% |
| JPMorgan | 5.5% | 100% | 3% |
| Morgan Stanley | 6% | 101.5% | 3.2% |
| Deutsche Bank | 6.5% | 103% | 3.3% |
Sources: CBO Budget and Economic Outlook (Feb 2026), IMF Article IV (Feb 2026), publicly available bank research notes (report dates shown). Wall Street forecasts reflect publicly available estimates; verify against original reports for precision. Updated: 2026-02-11.
TBAC Funding Gap Audit — Coming Soon
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) quarterly refunding minutes contain primary dealer funding estimates that reveal structural gaps between current issuance pace and projected borrowing needs. This component will be integrated into UFFI in a future release.
🔮 Preview: TBAC February 2026 Highlights
Funding Shortfall
$1.1T
FY2027–FY2028
10Y Bid-to-Cover
2.38×
Jan 2026
30Y Bid-to-Cover
2.29×
Jan 2026
Source: TBAC Minutes · as of Feb 5, 2026 · Funding shortfall ($1.1T) is median primary dealer estimate per TBAC minutes, assuming current coupon auction sizes remain unchanged. Bid-to-cover ratios from JEC Senate Monthly Debt Update (Jan 2026).
Data Freshness — Asynchronous Timeline
| Data Source | Frequency | Last Updated | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to the Penny | Daily (EOD) | Feb 4, 2026 | LIVE |
| Monthly Treasury Statement | Monthly | Feb 12, 2026 | LIVE |
| Interest Expense | Monthly | Feb 12, 2026 | LIVE |
| TBAC Minutes | Quarterly | Feb 5, 2026 | PREVIEW |
| CBO Baseline | Feb/Aug + event | Feb 11, 2026 | LIVE |
| Kalshi/Polymarket | Event-driven | Feb 25, 2026 | PREVIEW |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the US Fiscal Fragility Index (UFFI)? ▾
The US Fiscal Fragility Index (UFFI) is a composite measure of consensus fragility around US fiscal sustainability. It synthesizes 3 independent signals — debt acceleration, deficit flow stress, and interest burden — into a single 0–100 score. Higher scores indicate greater vulnerability to narrative shifts around debt sustainability. Current score: 77/100 (CRITICAL).
How much is the US national debt in 2026? ▾
As of Feb 4, 2026, total US public debt outstanding is $38.56 trillion. Of this, $30.96T is held by the public and $7.61T is intragovernmental holdings. The 180-day annualized growth rate is 6.3%, placing it at the 68th percentile of the 3-year distribution. Source: Treasury Fiscal Data — Debt to the Penny.
What is the US budget deficit in 2026? ▾
The 12-month rolling US federal deficit is $1.83T (5.6% of GDP). CBO's FY2026 baseline projects a $1.9T deficit (5.8% of GDP). FYTD (Oct–Jan): receipts $1.785T, outlays $2.482T, deficit $0.697T. Source: Monthly Treasury Statement.
How much does the US pay in interest on its debt? ▾
FYTD net interest expense (Oct–Jan 2026) is $0.348T, annualizing to approximately $1.044T. This represents 19.5% of federal receipts and 14% of outlays. CBO projects net interest rising to $2.1T by FY2036. The weighted average interest rate on outstanding debt is 3.35%. Source: Treasury Fiscal Data — Interest Expense on the Public Debt Outstanding.
What is the TBAC funding gap? ▾
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) February 2026 quarterly refunding minutes indicate that median primary dealer estimates imply a ~$1.1T funding shortfall over FY2027–FY2028 if current coupon auction sizes remain unchanged. Recent auction demand (Jan 2026): 10Y bid-to-cover 2.38×, 30Y bid-to-cover 2.29×. Source: TBAC Minutes; JEC Senate Monthly Debt Update.
How does UFFI differ from a debt clock? ▾
A debt clock shows the current level of national debt — a single number. UFFI measures the structural fragility of consensus around fiscal sustainability by tracking debt acceleration (velocity, not level), deficit flow stress (actual vs CBO baseline divergence), and interest burden (non-linear cost trajectory). UFFI answers not "how much debt?" but "how fragile is the current 'debt is manageable' consensus?"
Why do Wall Street banks forecast lower deficits than CBO? ▾
Wall Street banks forecast an average deficit/GDP of 6.1% for FY2026 (range: 5.2%–7.5%), while CBO's baseline is 5.8% and the IMF estimates 7–8%. This divergence reflects different growth assumptions, political incentives, and the structural tendency toward consensus compression in sell-side research. UFFI tracks this divergence as a fragility signal — when institutional forecasts cluster around an optimistic scenario, the system is more vulnerable to a single data release that breaks the narrative.
Is the UFFI investment advice? ▾
No. The US Fiscal Fragility Index (UFFI) is an experimental research tool developed by AhaSignals for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. AhaSignals is not affiliated with the US Treasury, CBO, IMF, or any financial institution. Users are responsible for their own investment decisions.
Methodology — UFFI v0.1-beta
The US Fiscal Fragility Index (UFFI) is a composite measure of consensus fragility around US fiscal sustainability. It does not predict fiscal outcomes — it measures the pressure building inside the fiscal structure by tracking debt velocity, deficit flow, and interest cost dynamics.
Component Formulas:
1. Debt Acceleration (30%): score = percentile_3y(annualized_180d_growth). Range: 0–100.
2. Deficit Flow Stress (25%): score = min(deficit_gdp × 15 + yoy_bonus, 100). yoy_bonus = min(yoy_change × 0.2, 20).
3. Interest Burden (25%): score = min(interest_receipts × 4, 100). 25% interest/receipts = max score.
Composite:
UFFI = Σ(weight_i × score_i) / Σ(weight_i)
Signal: LOW <25 | ELEVATED 25–49 | HIGH 50–74 | CRITICAL ≥75
Data Sources (all public, no auth required):
- Treasury Fiscal Data — Debt to the Penny (daily)
- Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) (monthly)
- Interest Expense on the Public Debt Outstanding (monthly)
- CBO Budget and Economic Outlook (Feb/Aug)
- TBAC Quarterly Refunding Minutes (quarterly)
Known Limitations:
- UFFI uses Total Public Debt Outstanding (TPDO). Per Treasury Fiscal Data notes, intragovernmental holdings include FFB (Federal Financing Bank) securities; debt held by the public excludes FFB securities.
- Deficit/GDP ratio uses BEA nominal GDP (advance estimate); subject to revision. The 12M rolling deficit is a rolling-window stress gauge, not directly comparable to CBO's fiscal-year baseline.
- Interest burden is annualized from FYTD data; actual full-year may differ due to seasonal patterns.
- TBAC funding gap and governance probability components are not yet scoring — shown as preview only.
- This is an experimental research tool (v0.1-beta). Not investment advice. AhaSignals is not affiliated with the U.S. Department of the Treasury, CBO, IMF, or any financial institution.
📎 Cite This Data
APA:
AhaSignals. (2026). US Fiscal Fragility Index (UFFI). Retrieved from https://ahasignals.com/us-fiscal-fragility-index/
MLA:
"US Fiscal Fragility Index (UFFI)." AhaSignals, 2026, ahasignals.com/us-fiscal-fragility-index/.
Chicago:
AhaSignals. "US Fiscal Fragility Index (UFFI)." 2026. https://ahasignals.com/us-fiscal-fragility-index/.
April 2026 Fiscal Stress Transmission Audit
US fiscal fragility in April 2026 creates non-linear crosswinds for risk assets. This audit maps how debt acceleration and interest expense growth transmit across the Q2–Q3 macro landscape.
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GOLD
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Debt acceleration drives institutional gold allocation. Gold consensus in April 2026 reflects the market's assessment of fiscal sustainability.
ENERGY
Treasury–Oil Crosswind — Fiscal-Energy Nexus
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DIGITAL
BTC vs Nasdaq — Risk Asset Correlation
Fiscal stress tests whether Bitcoin maintains its macro-hedge status or reverts to risk-asset correlation during the Q2–Q3 transition.
Last consensus audit performed on April 18, 2026. Correlation signals update with each tracker build cycle.
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