WALL STREET FX CONSENSUS · 2026
Wall Street FX Forecast Consensus 2026: EUR/USD, USD/JPY & DXY Bank Targets
Compiled FX forecasts from 8 major banks. All sourced from publicly available research. The consensus is not the signal — the dispersion and fragility are.
QUICK ANSWER · AS OF Mar 24, 2026
What are Wall Street's currency forecasts for 2026?
8 banks compiled. EUR/USD: median 1.2, range 1.1–1.25 (spot 1.15). USD/JPY: median 148, range 143–148 (spot 159.15). Implied DXY: median 98.9, range 96.6–104.0. Most banks expect USD weakening — but the consensus itself is the fragility risk.
EUR/USD Median
1.20
USD/JPY Median
148
DXY Median
98.9
Banks
8
The consensus leans bearish USD across pairs. But when most banks agree on direction, the risk of a sharp reversal rises — this is consensus fragility. Track individual pair fragility scores on the dedicated tracker pages.
Consensus Summary
Complete Bank Forecast Table
| Institution | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | Impl. DXY | Horizon | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 1.20 | 148 | 98.9 | Q4 2026 | official-summary |
| JPMorgan | 1.20 | 148 | 98.9 | Dec 2026 | official-summary |
| Morgan Stanley | 1.10 | 143 | 100.0 | Q4 2026 | official-public |
| Bank of America | 1.22 | 146 | 98.0 | YE 2026 | media-secondary |
| Citigroup | 1.10 | 148 | 104.0 | Mid-2026 | official-summary |
| Deutsche Bank | 1.25 | 145 | 96.6 | Q4 2026 | media-secondary |
| ING | 1.22 | 145 | 98.0 | Q4 2026 | official-public |
| UBS | 1.20 | 148 | 98.9 | Q4 2026 | media-secondary |
| Consensus (Median) | 1.20 | 148 | 98.9 | 8 banks | |
Reference only — bank forecasts are not used in any AhaSignals index scoring. Green = bullish for that currency vs current spot. "Implied DXY" is AhaSignals-derived using approximate ICE DXY basket weights — not official ICE data. Always verify against original sources.
FX Tracker Network
Frequently Asked Questions
- What are Wall Street's FX forecasts for 2026?
- AhaSignals compiles FX forecasts from 8 major banks. EUR/USD consensus median: 1.2 (range 1.1–1.25). USD/JPY consensus median: 148 (range 143–148). Implied DXY median: 98.9 (range 96.6–104.0). All forecasts are from publicly available sources.
- How accurate are bank FX forecasts?
- Bank FX forecasts have historically shown significant directional clustering — most banks tend to forecast in the same direction. When the consensus is wrong, the correction tends to be sharp. AhaSignals tracks this clustering through consensus fragility scores. Past forecast accuracy does not predict future accuracy. These forecasts are compiled for research purposes, not as investment advice.
- Where do these FX forecasts come from?
- All forecasts are compiled from publicly available bank research summaries, press releases, and reputable financial media. AhaSignals does not use paywalled research reports as index inputs. Each forecast includes a source type and link for verification. Forecasts may be conditional, scenario-based, or subject to revision.
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