Copper-Oil Ratio 2026: Industrial Cycle Divergence Tracker
Are copper and oil decoupling? We track the Cu/Oil ratio, rolling correlation, and relative momentum between industrial metals and energy. Research-only.
Last updated: Apr 8, 2026 · Copper: $4.84/lb · WTI: $89.21/bbl · Cu/Oil: 0.0543 · 30D Corr: 0.42
QUICK ANSWER · AS OF Apr 8, 2026
What is the copper-oil ratio in 2026?
The Cu/Oil ratio is 0.0543 (3y avg: 0.065). CORI: 47/100 (ELEVATED). Copper at $4.84/lb, WTI at $89.21/bbl. Current regime: Copper ↓ / Oil ↑.
Cu/Oil Ratio
0.0543
3Y Average
0.065
Regime
Copper ↓ / Oil ↑
CORI
47/100 (ELEVATED)
Copper and oil are diverging: copper weakening on China demand concerns while oil surges on geopolitical supply risk. The Cu/Oil ratio at 0.0543 is well below its 3-year average of 0.065.
CORI 47/100 — Cu/Oil ratio at 0.0543 vs 3y avg 0.065. Copper weakening on industrial demand concerns while oil surges on supply risk — a classic late-cycle divergence pattern.
Cu/Oil Ratio
0.0543
3Y Avg
0.065
Regime
Copper ↓ / Oil ↑
CORI Composite Score
Ratio Deviation (40%)
66/100
Cu/Oil ratio at 0.0543 (3y avg: 0.0650, below by 16%).
Correlation Break (35%)
33/100
30D correlation: 0.42 (baseline: 0.55). Correlation is falling — break magnitude: 0.13.
Relative Momentum Spread (25%)
35/100
30D spread: -10.4pp (Cu: -5.2%, Oil: +5.2%). Oil outperforming.
Copper-Oil Ratio Data
The Cu/Oil ratio (copper $/lb ÷ WTI $/bbl) measures the relative pricing of industrial metals vs energy. Deviations from the 3-year average signal shifting demand dynamics.
Cu/Oil Ratio
0.0543
3Y Average
0.065
52W High
0.082
52W Low
0.048
| Asset | Price | 52W Low | 52W High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper ($/lb) | $4.84 | $3.8 | $5.9 |
| WTI Crude ($/bbl) | $89.21 | $55.27 | $98.71 |
Rolling Correlation — Copper vs Oil
Copper and oil historically have a positive correlation (~0.55) as both respond to global growth. When the correlation weakens or turns negative, it signals diverging demand drivers between industrial metals and energy.
| Window | Correlation | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.42 | Below baseline — weakening |
| 90D | 0.38 | Decoupling trend |
| 180D | 0.45 | Below baseline |
| Historical Baseline | 0.55 | Typical positive correlation |
Weakening — 30D correlation 0.42 vs baseline 0.55. Copper and oil responding to different demand drivers.
Copper-Oil Regime Map
Copper ↑ / Oil ↑
Synchronized commodity rally
Copper ↓ / Oil ↑
Industrial weakness + supply risk
← CURRENT
Copper ↑ / Oil ↓
Industrial demand surge
Copper ↓ / Oil ↓
Broad commodity selloff
Current regime
Copper ↓ / Oil ↑
Historical frequency
18%
Avg duration
4.5 mo
30D spread
-10.4pp
Copper is falling on weakening industrial demand (China PMI softening) while oil surges on geopolitical supply risk (Iran conflict). This divergence signals that the market is pricing supply-side energy risk separately from demand-side industrial weakness — a classic late-cycle pattern.
Divergence Drivers — Context Only (Not Scored)
China consumes ~55% of global copper. Weakening Chinese manufacturing PMIs pressure copper while having less direct impact on oil prices.
Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz risk create a supply premium in oil that does not affect copper. Oil can spike on geopolitics while copper falls on demand.
EV batteries, solar panels, and AI data center infrastructure create structural copper demand that can decouple copper from traditional industrial cycles.
In synchronized global growth or contraction, copper and oil tend to move together as both respond to aggregate demand.
Historical Divergence Episodes
| Period | Regime | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Copper ↓ / Oil ↓ | Both copper and oil crashed 50%+ on demand destruction. |
| 2011 | Copper ↑ / Oil ↑ | Copper hit $4.60/lb; oil above $100. China infrastructure boom. |
| 2020 | Copper ↓ / Oil ↓ | Both crashed then recovered — copper faster on green transition demand. |
| 2022 | Copper ↓ / Oil ↑ | Oil surged to $130; copper fell on China lockdown fears. |
| Q1 2026 | Copper ↓ / Oil ↑ | Oil surging on Iran risk; copper weakening on China PMI softening. |
Macro Context
DXY
97.5
China Mfg PMI
49.2
VIX
19.9
Cu/Oil Ratio
0.0543
China manufacturing PMI at 49.2 (contraction) is weighing on copper while geopolitical supply risk supports oil. The Cu/Oil ratio at 0.054 (vs 3y avg 0.065) reflects this divergence. Green transition demand provides a structural floor for copper but is not enough to offset cyclical weakness.
Data Freshness
| Source | Cadence | Lag | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper (derived) | End of day | ~24 hours | Apr 8, 2026 |
| WTI Crude (EIA/FRED) | Daily | ~24–48 hours | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Correlation | Recalculated daily | ~24 hours | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Returns / Regime | Recalculated daily | ~24 hours | Apr 8, 2026 |
Methodology — CORI v0.1-beta
1) Ratio Deviation (40%)
score = min(|current_ratio − baseline_3y| / (baseline_3y × 0.25) × 100, 100)
A 25% deviation from the 3-year average Cu/Oil ratio = score of 100.
2) Correlation Break (35%)
score = min(|corr_30d − baseline| / 0.4 × 100, 100)
A 0.4 shift from baseline (0.55 to 0.15) = score of 100.
3) Relative Momentum Spread (25%)
score = min(|spread_30d| / 30 × 100, 100)
A 30pp spread between copper and oil 30D returns = score of 100.
Signal thresholds: LOW (0–24) · ELEVATED (25–49) · HIGH (50–74) · CRITICAL (75–100)
Known limitations: Copper price reflects both industrial and speculative demand; oil prices are influenced by OPEC+ decisions and geopolitics; correlation is backward-looking; v0.1-beta does not account for inventory levels or futures curve structure.
Version: v0.1-beta · Research use only — not a trading signal.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the copper-oil ratio? ▾
The copper-oil ratio measures the price of copper (per lb) divided by the price of WTI crude oil (per barrel). The current ratio is 0.0543 vs a 3-year average of 0.065. When the ratio deviates significantly from its historical average, it signals diverging demand drivers between industrial metals and energy.
How does China demand affect the copper-oil ratio? ▾
China consumes approximately 55% of global copper for construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure. When Chinese manufacturing PMIs weaken, copper tends to fall faster than oil — compressing the Cu/Oil ratio. Conversely, Chinese stimulus programs can lift copper disproportionately, expanding the ratio.
How does the green transition impact copper vs oil? ▾
The green transition creates structural demand for copper (EVs, solar panels, grid infrastructure, AI data centers) while potentially reducing long-term oil demand. This secular shift can cause the copper-oil ratio to trend higher over time, independent of cyclical factors.
Is the copper-oil ratio an economic cycle indicator? ▾
Yes. Copper is often called "Dr. Copper" because its price reflects industrial activity. When copper and oil diverge — especially copper falling while oil rises — it can signal late-cycle dynamics where supply-side energy risk coexists with weakening industrial demand.
Is this a trading signal? ▾
No. Research-only. CORI quantifies the structural divergence between copper and oil; it does not provide investment advice.
📎 Cite This Data ▾
APA 7th Edition
AhaSignals. (2026). Copper-Oil Ratio Index (CORI). Retrieved April 18, 2026, from https://ahasignals.com/copper-oil-ratio-tracker/
Methodology: v0.1-beta
Data as-of: Apr 8, 2026
Research purposes only. Not investment advice. All index inputs from free, public, clickable sources.
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This page is for informational and research purposes only — not investment advice. Commodity markets are volatile. Past correlation patterns do not predict future performance. CORI methodology version: v0.1-beta. © 2026 AhaSignals. All rights reserved.