MONTHLY SNAPSHOT · MARCH 2026
Copper-Gold Ratio — March 2026 Monthly Snapshot
In March 2026, the copper-gold ratio proxy remains structurally suppressed at 1.25 ×10⁻³ lb/oz while the 10-year Treasury yield holds at 4.32%. The 60-day correlation between the two is 0.08 — far below the historical baseline of approximately 0.85 (2000–2021). The divergence D stands at 3.77σ, consistent with Yield-Led Divergence. Gold experienced its steepest weekly decline since 1983 (~11% from above $5,300), yet the copper-gold ratio did not meaningfully recover — suggesting the structural breakdown is not simply a gold-distortion story.
Data through: Apr 17, 2026
March 2026 at a Glance
Cu/Au Proxy
1.25×10⁻³ lb/oz
10Y Yield
4.32%
60D Correlation
0.08
Divergence D
3.77σ
vs Previous Month
2025 Q4 Corr
0.12
2025 Q4 D
+2.2σ
2025 Q4 GCDI
78 CRITICAL
Breakdown Type
A+B
Conclusion
March 2026 does not confirm a growth recovery. The copper-gold ratio proxy remains near structurally low levels while Treasury yields stay elevated — a combination more consistent with non-growth yield pressure (Type A) and gold repricing as a monetary reserve asset (Type B) than with a genuine growth rebound. The divergence D of 3.77σ is wider than the 2025 Q4 reading of 2.2σ, yet the GCDI composite may score differently because it is a three-component weighted index — correlation breakdown and divergence acceleration also contribute. The bond market is not confirming the copper-gold signal; yields appear held up by factors beyond growth expectations.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What changed in the copper-gold ratio in March 2026?
- Gold experienced its steepest weekly decline since 1983, falling from above $5,300 to near $4,400. Despite this, the copper-gold ratio proxy barely recovered — remaining at 1.25 ×10⁻³ lb/oz. The 60-day correlation with 10Y yields is 0.08, still near zero versus the 0.85 historical baseline. The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% with hawkish forward guidance.
- Is the March 2026 copper-gold reading a recession signal?
- A low copper-gold ratio historically signals weak industrial demand relative to safe-haven demand. However, the current breakdown is complicated by structural factors — central bank gold accumulation (Type B) and fiscal deficit yield pressure (Type A) — that may be distorting the traditional growth-signal interpretation. GCDI measures the fragility of the growth consensus, not a binary recession call.
- Why is the bond market not confirming the copper-gold signal?
- The 10-year yield at 4.32% is +74 basis points above what the copper-gold ratio implies. This gap may reflect non-growth yield pressure from fiscal deficit supply, term premium expansion, and structural repricing of the neutral rate — rather than genuine growth optimism.
- Is the March reading less extreme than late 2025?
- The divergence D is actually wider in March 2026 (3.77σ) than in 2025 Q4 (2.2σ). However, GCDI is a composite of three components (correlation breakdown 35%, divergence magnitude 45%, divergence acceleration 20%), so a higher D does not automatically produce a higher total score. The acceleration component may be scoring lower if the divergence is widening slowly rather than rapidly.
Data Sources
Related
📊 Get Copper-Gold Growth Divergence Tracker Updates
Get weekly updates when the GCDI dashboard state changes materially, plus new research on consensus fragility and market divergence. Research-only. Not trade signals.
🔒 No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. 2,000+ researchers and practitioners as of Apr 2026.
Research and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data may be delayed. See methodology · terms · privacy.