DATASET
Copper-Gold Ratio — Historical Data & Download
Historical copper-gold ratio proxy data tracking the divergence between a copper-versus-gold growth proxy and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from 2000 through 2026. Each observation includes the Cu/Au proxy ratio, 10-year Treasury yield, 60-day rolling correlation, model gap (actual vs implied yield), Z-score divergence D, and regime classification. The historical correlation baseline is approximately 0.85 (computed from 2000–2021 data). This dataset publishes derived analytical indicators — it does not redistribute raw copper or gold exchange prices.
← Back to Copper-Gold Growth Divergence TrackerDate Range
2000–2026
Frequency
Daily (trading days)
Historical Corr Baseline
~0.85
Current Cu/Au Proxy
1.25×10⁻³ lb/oz
Data Preview
| Date | Cu/Au Proxy | 10Y Yield | 60D Corr | Model Gap | D (σ) | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | 1.25×10⁻³ lb/oz | 4.32% | 0.08 | +74 bps | 3.77σ | Yield-Led |
| 2025-10-15 | 1.18×10⁻³ | 4.52% | 0.12 | +94 bps | +2.2σ | Yield-Led |
| 2024-06-30 | 1.35×10⁻³ | 4.48% | 0.08 | +88 bps | +2.4σ | Yield-Led |
| 2023-10-19 | 1.22×10⁻³ | 4.98% | -0.22 | +141 bps | +3.1σ | Yield-Led |
| 2022-10-21 | 1.30×10⁻³ | 4.21% | -0.15 | +93 bps | +2.8σ | Yield-Led |
| 2021-03-18 | 2.10×10⁻³ | 1.72% | 0.80 | -12 bps | -0.4σ | Growth Confirm |
| 2013-07-05 | 1.65×10⁻³ | 2.72% | 0.11 | +85 bps | +2.1σ | Yield-Led |
| 2006-11-30 | 2.45×10⁻³ | 4.56% | 0.78 | +8 bps | +0.3σ | Growth Confirm |
Showing first 8 rows of analysis data.
Methodology & Notes
The copper-gold ratio proxy is calculated as copper price (USD/lb) divided by gold price (USD/oz), producing a value in the 10⁻³ range. Both prices are derived from publicly available settlement data — AhaSignals does not redistribute CME Group market data, Yahoo Finance data, or LBMA Gold Price benchmark data. The 10-year Treasury yield is sourced from the U.S. Treasury's official daily yield curve (public domain). Rolling correlation uses 60-day Pearson correlation of daily changes. The model gap is the difference between the actual 10Y yield and the Cu/Au-implied yield from a 3-year rolling regression. Divergence D is the difference between Z-scores of 10Y yield and Cu/Au ratio (3-year rolling normalization). Regime classification uses 20-day trailing direction of both Cu/Au and 10Y yield.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What data is included in this dataset?
- Each observation includes: date, Cu/Au proxy ratio, 10-year Treasury yield, 60-day rolling correlation, model gap (basis points), Z-score divergence D, and regime classification. All values are derived analytical indicators computed by AhaSignals.
- Is this raw copper and gold market data?
- No. This dataset contains derived analytical observations, not raw exchange prices. AhaSignals does not redistribute CME Group market data, Yahoo Finance data, or LBMA Gold Price benchmark data. The Cu/Au proxy is a derived ratio computed from publicly available settlement data.
- How often is the dataset updated?
- The dataset is updated daily after U.S. market close using an automated pipeline. If the pipeline fails to retrieve current data, the most recent valid observation is retained and a staleness warning is displayed on the tracker page.
- What does a low copper-gold ratio mean historically?
- A low copper-gold ratio means gold is expensive relative to copper, which historically signals weak industrial demand relative to safe-haven demand. However, since 2022 the traditional correlation with Treasury yields has broken down — the ratio has been structurally suppressed while yields remain elevated, suggesting non-growth factors are distorting one or both signals.
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Data provided for research and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. See methodology.