MONTHLY SNAPSHOT · MARCH 2026
Gold-Oil Ratio — March 2026 Monthly Snapshot
The gold-oil ratio dropped sharply in early March 2026 to 57.7, down from a 52-week high of 82.1 in February. The compression was driven by a ~12% surge in WTI crude oil prices on Iran conflict escalation, while gold remained elevated above $4,849.4/oz. This represents one of the fastest ratio compressions since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine oil shock.
Data through: Apr 17, 2026
March 2026 at a Glance
Current Ratio
57.7
Gold Spot
$4,849.4
WTI Crude
$84.00
30D Correlation
-0.18
vs Previous Month
Feb High Ratio
82.1
Feb WTI Range
$55–$68
MoM Change
-30%
3Y Average
32.5
Conclusion
March 2026 marks a dramatic regime shift in the gold-oil relationship. The ratio compressed from 82.1 to 57.7 in under two weeks — a move driven almost entirely by the oil supply side (Iran conflict) rather than gold weakness. Gold's resilience above $5,000 during an oil shock is historically unusual and suggests the safe-haven bid for gold is structurally stronger than in previous geopolitical episodes. The ratio remains well above the historical median of 14.7, indicating gold is still expensive relative to oil by long-term standards.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What happened to the gold-oil ratio in March 2026?
- The gold-oil ratio dropped sharply from 82.1 to 57.7 in early March 2026, driven by a ~12% surge in WTI crude oil on Iran conflict escalation. Gold held above $5,000, so the compression was entirely oil-driven.
- Is the gold-oil ratio still elevated?
- Yes. At 57.7, the ratio remains well above the historical median of 14.7 and the 3-year average of 32.5. The March compression brought it closer to recent norms but it is still elevated by historical standards.
- What does a falling gold-oil ratio mean?
- A falling gold-oil ratio means oil is gaining relative to gold. This can signal rising inflation expectations, supply disruptions, or a shift from safe-haven demand toward commodity demand. In March 2026, the decline was driven by a geopolitical oil supply shock.
Data Sources
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