Current Copper-Gold Ratio Today
The AhaSignals copper-gold ratio proxy stands at 1.25 ×10⁻³ lb/oz as of April 17, 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.32%, and the 60-day correlation between the two is 0.08 — far below the historical baseline of approximately 0.85 (2000–2021). This corresponds to a Yield-Led Divergence regime with a model gap of +74 basis points.
Last updated: Apr 17, 2026
Cu/Au RATIO PROXY
1.25×10⁻³ lb/oz
Copper ÷ Gold (lb/oz)
Historical Context
10Y Treasury Yield
4.32%
U.S. Treasury official
60D Correlation
0.08
vs 0.85 baseline
Model Gap
+74 bps
Actual vs Cu/Au-implied yield
Divergence D
3.77σ
Yield-Led Divergence
120D Correlation
0.15
252D Correlation
0.20
10Y Breakeven
2.36%
10Y Real Yield
1.96%
What's Driving the Current Value
Treasury yields may be elevated by factors other than growth expectations, including fiscal deficit supply pressure and term premium expansion.
Gold may be moving for reserve, defensive, or market-structure reasons not fully related to cyclical growth, including central bank reserve accumulation.
Copper may be influenced by sectoral demand or supply conditions beyond broad cyclical growth, including green-energy transition and AI infrastructure buildout.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the copper-gold ratio?
- The copper-gold ratio divides the price of copper by the price of gold. Copper reflects industrial demand and growth expectations; gold reflects safe-haven demand and monetary credibility. The ratio isolates growth sentiment by dividing "demand" by "fear." Historically, it correlates with 10-year Treasury yields at approximately 0.85.
- Why does the copper-gold ratio matter for economic growth?
- The copper-gold ratio has historically been one of the strongest leading indicators for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, with a correlation of approximately 0.85 over the 2000–2021 period. When the ratio rises, it signals industrial confidence and growth expectations — which typically push bond yields higher. When it falls, it signals defensive positioning.
- What is the copper-gold ratio signaling today?
- The current proxy of 1.25 ×10⁻³ lb/oz with a 60-day correlation of 0.08 against 10Y yields indicates a structural breakdown in the traditional relationship. The model gap of +74 bps means Treasury yields are significantly above what the copper-gold ratio implies — consistent with Yield-Led Divergence.
- Why compare the copper-gold ratio with the 10-year Treasury yield?
- Both the copper-gold ratio and the 10-year Treasury yield respond to expected real GDP growth. When they move together (correlation near 0.85), the growth consensus is coherent. When they diverge, it signals that non-growth factors — fiscal deficits, central bank gold buying, or structural copper demand — may be distorting one or both signals.
- How often is this page updated?
- This page is updated daily after U.S. market close using an automated data pipeline. The copper-gold ratio proxy is derived from publicly available settlement data. The 10-year Treasury yield is sourced from the U.S. Treasury official daily yield curve. If the pipeline fails, a staleness warning is displayed.
Data Sources
- 10Y Treasury Yield (U.S. Treasury official) — Public domain
- Copper (derived observation from publicly available data) — End-of-day settlement
- Gold (derived observation from publicly available data) — End-of-day settlement
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This page is for research and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data may be delayed. See methodology for details.