GLOSSARY · DIVERGENCE
UFFI
US Fiscal Fragility Index
DEFINITION
A composite index measuring US fiscal sustainability stress via debt, deficit, and interest burden metrics. Higher scores indicate greater fiscal fragility — meaning the US government's fiscal position is deteriorating across multiple dimensions.
Components & Weights
Debt Acceleration
Rate of change in total public debt relative to GDP. Accelerating debt growth signals unsustainable trajectory.
Deficit Flow Stress
FYTD deficit as a percentage of GDP, annualized. Persistent large deficits outside recession = structural fiscal stress.
Interest Burden
Net interest payments as a share of federal receipts. Rising burden crowds out discretionary spending and signals debt spiral risk.
Auction Demand
Bid-to-cover ratios and foreign participation in Treasury auctions. Weakening demand = higher borrowing costs ahead.
Score Interpretation
| Score Range | Signal | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| 0–30 | Low Fragility | Fiscal metrics within sustainable range |
| 30–60 | Elevated Fragility | Fiscal stress building; watch interest burden |
| 60–100 | High Fragility | Severe fiscal stress; debt sustainability at risk |