GLOSSARY · DIVERGENCE

GYDI

Gold-Real Yield Divergence Index

DEFINITION

A composite index measuring the breakdown of the traditional gold-real yield inverse relationship. Higher scores indicate that gold is diverging from its expected behavior relative to real interest rates — suggesting structural forces (central bank buying, de-dollarization) are overriding the yield signal.

Components & Weights

40%

Correlation Breakdown

Rolling correlation between gold and TIPS real yields vs. historical norm. Weakening correlation = traditional model failing.

35%

Regime Deviation

Gold price deviation from the level implied by current real yields using the pre-2022 regression model.

25%

Structural Override

Proxy for non-yield gold demand (central bank purchases, ETF flows) that explains the residual not captured by real yields.

Score Interpretation

Score Range	Signal	Interpretation
0–30	Low Divergence	Gold tracking real yields normally
30–60	Elevated Divergence	Relationship weakening; structural forces emerging
60–100	High Divergence	Traditional model broken; regime shift underway

Related Terms

GFI GODI TOCI

→ View Live GYDI Tracker