GLOSSARY · DIVERGENCE

GFI

Gold Forecast Index

DEFINITION

A composite index measuring gold forecast consensus fragility via LBMA survey dispersion. Higher scores indicate greater disagreement among gold analysts — a signal that the prevailing consensus may be unstable and vulnerable to repricing.

Components & Weights

40%

Forecast Dispersion

Spread between high and low LBMA survey forecasts normalized by the median. Wider dispersion = less agreement on gold's direction.

30%

Consensus Clustering

Degree to which forecasts cluster around the median vs. spread across the range. High clustering with outliers signals fragile consensus.

30%

Temporal Drift

Year-over-year shift in the consensus forecast midpoint. Rapid drift signals regime change in analyst expectations.

Score Interpretation

Score Range Signal Interpretation
0–30 Low Fragility Strong consensus; forecasts tightly clustered
30–60 Elevated Fragility Growing disagreement; consensus may be unstable
60–100 High Fragility Wide dispersion; consensus breakdown likely

Related Terms

SSTI GYDI DCDI
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LBMA forecast data sourced from the London Bullion Market Association annual survey. GFI is an independent AhaSignals methodology. For research purposes only — not investment advice.