v0.1-beta AISI Satellite

Interconnection Queue Tracker

The US grid interconnection queue is the physical bottleneck of the AI buildout. This page tracks queue backlog, wait times, and the critical gap between pipeline entries and actual project completion.

Last Updated: 2026-02-27

Data As Of: End of 2024 (LBNL 2025 Edition)

Source: DOE/LBNL — Queued Up: 2025 Edition — free, public, clickable.

Queue Backlog

~2,300 GW

gen + storage

Projects in Queue

~10,300

end of 2024

Avg Wait Time

5.0 yr

completed 2024

Completion Rate

14%

of capacity, 2000–2023

Queue Backlog Breakdown

The queue includes all generation and storage types — solar, wind, gas, nuclear, battery storage, and hybrid projects. It is not specific to data center loads.

Generation

~1,400 GW

Storage

~890 GW

YoY Change

−300 GW

from ~2,600 (end-2023)

Resource Type Capacity (GW) % of Queue Hist. Completion
Solar 1,086 47% ~14%
Wind 366 16% ~18%
Storage (Battery) 890 39% ~8%
Natural Gas 79 3% ~35%
Nuclear / Other ~30 ~1% ~20%

⚠️ Pipeline ≠ Delivery

Queue entries represent applications, not commitments. Only ~14% of queued capacity historically reaches commercial operation (2000–2023, capacity-weighted). The remaining ~86% is withdrawn, rejected, or indefinitely delayed. Treating queue backlog as "planned capacity" overstates the grid's future generation by approximately 6×.

Completion Rate — The Base Rate Problem

The ~14% historical completion rate is the single most important context for interpreting queue data. It means that for every 100 GW entering the queue, only ~14 GW historically reaches commercial operation. The rest is withdrawn, fails studies, or is indefinitely delayed.

AISI Infrastructure Lag Formula:

score = clamp(avgQueueYears × 15, 0, 100)

Current: 5.0 years × 15 = 75/100

Weight in AISI composite: 20%

FERC Order 2023 (effective 2024) aims to reduce queue processing times by implementing cluster studies and financial commitment requirements. Early data shows the queue declining from ~2,600 GW to ~2,300 GW — but it is too early to determine whether completion rates will improve.

FERC Order 2023 — Reform Impact

FERC Order 2023 (effective 2024) is the most significant reform to the interconnection process in decades. Key changes include:

  • Cluster study approach (replacing serial first-come-first-served)
  • Financial commitment requirements (readiness deposits) to deter speculative entries
  • Firm study timelines with penalties for transmission provider delays
  • Withdrawal penalties to reduce queue churn

📊 Early signal

Queue declined ~300 GW YoY (from ~2,600 to ~2,300 GW) — the first significant decline in years. This suggests FERC reforms are filtering out speculative entries. However, it is too early to determine whether this translates to faster completion times or higher completion rates.

Methodology — v0.1-beta

This page tracks the US grid interconnection queue using DOE/LBNL's Queued Up dataset, the most comprehensive public source for queue statistics. All figures are from the 2025 Edition (data through end of 2024).

Data Sources:

Known Limitations:

  • Queue data is updated annually by LBNL; intra-year changes are not captured.
  • Completion rate (14%) is a historical average (2000–2023); future rates may differ due to FERC reforms.
  • Queue includes all resource types, not only data center-related generation.
  • Wait time (5 years) is for projects completed in 2024; projects still in queue may take longer.
  • This is an experimental research tool (v0.1-beta). Not investment advice.
📎 Cite This Data

AhaSignals. (2026). Interconnection Queue Tracker. Retrieved from https://ahasignals.com/interconnection-queue-tracker/

Frequently Asked Questions

How large is the US interconnection queue?

As of end-2024, approximately 2,300 GW of generation and storage capacity is actively seeking grid connection across the US, according to DOE/LBNL's Queued Up 2025 Edition. This includes ~1,400 GW of generation and ~890 GW of storage across ~10,300 projects. The queue declined from ~2,600 GW (end-2023) as FERC Order 2023 reforms took effect.

What percentage of queued projects actually get built?

Historically, only about 14% of queued capacity (by GW) has been completed and reached commercial operation, based on LBNL data covering 2000–2023. This means the vast majority of queue entries never translate into actual generation capacity. This completion rate is a critical context for interpreting queue backlog figures.

How long does interconnection take?

Projects that completed interconnection in 2024 took an average of approximately 5 years from initial queue entry to commercial operation, according to DOE/LBNL. Wait times have been increasing as queue volumes grow and study processes become more complex.

Is this investment advice?

No. This page is an independent research audit produced by AhaSignals for educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice.

📊 Get Updates

Get weekly updates when the dashboard state changes materially, plus new research on consensus fragility and market divergence. Research-only. Not trade signals.

🔒 No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. 2,000+ researchers and practitioners as of Apr 2026.

Legal Disclaimer

This page is produced by AhaSignals for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. All data is sourced from DOE/LBNL's publicly available Queued Up dataset. Version: v0.1-beta.