METHODOLOGY
How to Read a Forecast Tracker
An AhaSignals forecast tracker is a research terminal for the latest observable gap between market pricing, consensus expectations, and cross-asset confirmation. It is not a prediction engine and not a trading signal.
Start With the Timestamp
Every tracker should be read from its data cutoff. A current reading can be useful only if the timestamp is clear. Monthly snapshots and preview pages are fixed-context pages; live trackers are the source for the latest available reading.
Read the Tracker in Four Layers
1. Current reading
The latest value or composite score tells you where the signal stands now.
2. Consensus anchor
Forecasts, survey ranges, dot plots, or institutional targets show the reference point the market narrative is leaning on.
3. Market reality
Spot prices, spreads, correlations, and implied probabilities show whether the narrative is being confirmed or contradicted.
4. Scenario map
Scenarios translate disagreement into a research question without turning the page into advice.
Example Trackers
Research only. A forecast tracker explains uncertainty; it does not remove uncertainty.