Nasdaq 100 vs Nikkei 225 Correlation 2026
Cross-market correlation analysis between Nasdaq 100 (US) and Nikkei 225 (Japan). Research-only. Not investment advice.
Last updated: Apr 8, 2026 · NDX: 24,189 · NKY: 55,895
QUICK ANSWER · AS OF Apr 8, 2026
What is the NDX vs NKY correlation in 2026?
The NDX-NKY 30D correlation is 0.78 (5Y baseline: 0.55). Nasdaq 100 at 24,189 (YTD: -7.4%), Nikkei 225 at 55,895 (YTD: +8.2%). Regime: high correlation.
30D Corr
0.78
5Y Baseline
0.55
NDX
24,189
NKY
55,895
Nasdaq-Nikkei correlation is the highest among global pairs. Both are tech-heavy and sensitive to semiconductor cycle dynamics. Japan's chip equipment sector (Tokyo Electron, Advantest) amplifies the linkage.
Correlation Dashboard
Nasdaq 100 (US)
24,189
YTD: -7.4%
Nikkei 225 (Japan)
55,895
YTD: +8.2%
30D Correlation
0.78
90D Correlation
0.72
1Y Correlation
0.68
5Y Baseline
0.55
Regime Analysis
Nasdaq-Nikkei correlation is the highest among global pairs. Both are tech-heavy and sensitive to semiconductor cycle dynamics. Japan's chip equipment sector (Tokyo Electron, Advantest) amplifies the linkage.
Divergence Score
Score
77/100
Signal
CRITICAL
Deviation
0.23
Score = |30D corr − 5Y baseline| / 0.30 × 100, capped at 100. Higher = greater deviation from historical norm.
Data Freshness & Timezone
Each index is observed at its local market close. Cross-timezone correlations align returns to the later-closing market's trading day.
| Index | Market | Close Time (Local) | Timezone | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX | US | 16:00 | ET (-04:00) | 2026-04-08 |
| NKY | Japan | 15:00 | JST (+09:00) | 2026-04-09 |
Methodology
Correlations are Pearson rolling correlations of daily log returns, computed over the specified window (30D, 90D, 1Y). Returns are calculated from local-currency index levels at each market's official close time.
For cross-timezone pairs (e.g., NDX in ET vs NKY in JST), returns are aligned to the later-closing market's trading day. This means NDX's return on day T is paired with NKY's return on the same calendar day.
Regime classification: high (≥0.60), moderate (0.35–0.59), low (0.15–0.34), negative (<0.15). The 5-year baseline represents the average 90D rolling correlation over 2021–2025.
Known Limitations:
- Timezone misalignment: NDX (ET) and NKY (JST) close at different times. Asian markets close before European/US markets open, so "same-day" correlations reflect lagged information flow.
- Holiday calendars: Different national holidays create gaps in return series. Missing days are excluded from correlation calculations.
- Currency effects: Correlations are computed in local currency. FX movements (e.g., USD/JPY, EUR/USD) are embedded in the correlation but not isolated.
- Regime dependency: Correlations are backward-looking and can shift rapidly during crises. The 30D window captures recent dynamics but may not reflect structural relationships.
v0.1-beta · Research use only — not investment advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the NDX-NKY correlation in 2026? ▾
The 30-day rolling correlation between Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 is 0.78 as of Apr 8, 2026. The 5-year baseline is 0.55. Current regime: high correlation.
Why does the NDX-NKY correlation matter? ▾
The correlation between Nasdaq 100 (US) and Nikkei 225 (Japan) measures how closely these markets move together. High correlation means diversification benefits are limited; low correlation means the markets respond to different drivers, offering potential diversification. Changes in correlation can signal regime shifts in global capital flows.
Is this a trading signal? ▾
No. This page provides research-only cross-market correlation analysis. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to trade.
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📎 Cite This Data ▾
APA 7th Edition
AhaSignals. (2026). NDX-NKY Correlation. Retrieved April 18, 2026, from https://ahasignals.com/equity-correlation/ndx-nk225/
Methodology: v0.1-beta
Data as-of: Apr 8, 2026
Research purposes only. Not investment advice. All index inputs from free, public, clickable sources.
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This page is for informational and research purposes only — not investment advice. Equity markets are volatile. Past correlation patterns do not predict future performance. Index levels are derived from publicly available market observations. © 2026 AhaSignals. All rights reserved.