DATASET
Bitcoin-Nasdaq Correlation — Historical Data & Download
Historical rolling correlation data between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index, covering 2020–2026. Each observation includes 30-day and 90-day rolling Pearson correlations calculated from daily returns (trading-day aligned), regime classification, and contextual notes. The 3-year baseline correlation is approximately 0.45. This dataset is essential for understanding whether Bitcoin behaves as an independent macro asset or a high-beta equity proxy.
← Back to BTC-Nasdaq Divergence TrackerDate Range
2020–2026
Frequency
Weekly
3Y Baseline
0.45
Current 30D
0.72
Data Preview
| Date | 30D Corr | 90D Corr | Regime | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | +0.72 | +0.15 | Correlated | Iran strikes — both decline |
| 2026-02-17 | +0.72 | −0.10 | Correlated | Correlation swing from −0.68 |
| 2026-01-16 | −0.68 | +0.35 | Decoupling | NDX near ATH, BTC −30% |
| 2025-10-05 | +0.55 | +0.50 | Correlated | BTC ATH $126,080 |
| 2025-06-15 | +0.40 | +0.45 | Neutral | Mid-cycle consolidation |
| 2024-12-31 | +0.48 | +0.42 | Neutral | Year-end positioning |
Showing first 6 rows of analysis data.
Methodology & Notes
Rolling correlations are calculated using Pearson correlation of daily log returns. BTC returns are aligned to Nasdaq trading days only (weekend BTC returns are measured close-to-close at 4 PM ET on each trading day). The 30-day window captures short-term regime shifts; the 90-day window provides a smoother trend. Regime classification: Correlated (30D > 0.5), Neutral (−0.3 to 0.5), Decoupling (30D < −0.3), Inverted (30D < −0.5 sustained). Sources: CoinDesk, public exchange data, publicly available research.
Frequently Asked Questions
- How is BTC-Nasdaq correlation calculated?
- We calculate Pearson correlation of daily log returns over rolling 30-day and 90-day windows. BTC returns are aligned to Nasdaq trading days to ensure comparability. Weekend BTC price changes are attributed to the next trading day.
- What is the historical average BTC-Nasdaq correlation?
- The 3-year average 90-day correlation between BTC and Nasdaq is approximately 0.45. The correlation has ranged from −0.68 to +0.72 in recent months, showing significant regime-dependent variation.
- Why does the correlation change so much?
- BTC-Nasdaq correlation is regime-dependent. During risk-on periods, both assets tend to rise together (high correlation). During crypto-specific events (regulatory news, halving), BTC can decouple. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 structurally increased the correlation by linking BTC to equity risk appetite.
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Data provided for research and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. See methodology.