Kalshi Consensus Thermometer
Real-time consensus fragility analysis for regulated prediction markets
Data Delay Notice
Consensus metrics are updated hourly from Kalshi's public API. Data may have minute-level latency and should not be used for real-time trading decisions. This is a cognitive science research tool for studying consensus dynamics.
Current Market Consensus Status
Current KXFED Divergence: 7.0% - Fed Funds Rate Consensus
Current KXCPI Divergence: 0.0% - CPI Inflation Consensus
Current KXINX Divergence: 0.0% - S&P 500 Daily Consensus
Kalshi Prediction Market Consensus
Real-time consensus fragility indicators for prediction markets
T1 Macro Core Indicators
Primary consensus metrics - always monitored
T3 Category Belief Concentration
Aggregate consensus density across market categories
Category Belief Concentration
Radar view of consensus density across market categories
Historical CDI Trends
Consensus Density Index over time
Kalshi CDI Fragility Index History
Consensus Density Index over time for prediction markets
Historical CDI values reflect consensus fragility states. Not a price prediction tool. Not affiliated with Kalshi.
Cognitive science research tool. Not investment advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.
→ View MethodologyMethodology
The Kalshi Consensus Thermometer applies the Consensus Density Index (CDI) and Belief System Entropy (BSE) framework to regulated prediction market data. This methodology was originally developed for analyzing consensus dynamics in precious metals markets and has been adapted for binary outcome prediction markets.
Key Metrics:
- CDI (0.20-0.95): Measures belief concentration. Higher values indicate more crowded consensus, which correlates with increased fragility.
- BSE (0.10-0.85): Measures belief diversity using Shannon entropy. Lower values indicate less diversity and higher fragility risk.
- DMS (0-1): Divergence Magnitude Score measuring the gap between current price and 7-day moving average.
- CV (0.25-0.90): Consensus Velocity measuring the speed of belief change.
For a complete explanation of the theoretical framework and calculation methods, see the Consensus Thermometer Framework .
⚠️ Important Disclaimer
This is a cognitive science research tool for studying consensus dynamics. This is NOT investment advice.
The Kalshi Consensus Thermometer is designed for academic research into belief concentration and consensus fragility patterns. The metrics displayed should not be used as the basis for any trading or investment decisions.
AhaSignals Laboratory is not affiliated with Kalshi, Inc. All market data is sourced from Kalshi's public API and is provided for research purposes only.
Prediction markets involve substantial risk of loss. Past consensus patterns do not predict future market movements. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
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Consensus Thermometer Framework
Complete methodology for CDI/BSE consensus analysis
CDI Definition
Consensus Density Index glossary entry
BSE Definition
Belief System Entropy glossary entry
Consensus Fragility
Understanding fragility in belief systems