Gold Market Research
This research series applies the AhaSignals methodology to analyze consensus dynamics in global gold markets. Using the Consensus Thermometer framework, we examine how collective beliefs form, harden, and potentially become fragile in the gold market ecosystem spanning London (LBMA) and New York (COMEX).
Current Market Context (January 2026)
- • Gold prices near all-time highs (~$4,800-$5,000/oz)
- • Consensus Density Index: 0.87 (historically elevated)
- • Belief System Entropy: 0.18 (low diversity)
- • LBMA 2026 forecast range: $3,450 - $7,150
- • Central bank buying: 634 tonnes in 2025 (through November)
Research Articles
Gold Price Forecast 2026: Wall Street Consensus vs. Fragility Risks
Major investment banks forecast gold prices between $4,500-$6,300 for 2026, with J.P. Morgan leading at $6,300/oz. However, our Consensus Thermometer analysis reveals dangerous fragility in this bullish consensus. This research examines why the current Wall Street consensus, despite appearing robust...
The Central Bank Gold Narrative: Information Cascade or Structural Shift?
This research applies the A3P-L v2 methodology to examine whether the dominant "central bank gold buying" narrative represents a genuine structural shift in global monetary architecture or an information cascade that has become self-reinforcing. We analyze the cognitive mechanisms driving consensus ...
London vs New York Gold Market Consensus Divergence: Interpreting LBMA Spot and COMEX Futures Signals
This research applies the divergence detection framework to analyze structural differences between the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) spot market and the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) futures market. By comparing pricing mechanisms, participant composition, and information transmissi...
Gold at $5,000: The Cognitive Mechanisms Behind Extreme Price Targets
This research examines the cognitive and behavioral mechanisms that drive the formation of extreme price targets in the gold market. With forecasts ranging from $4,000 to $7,000 and some analysts projecting $10,000, we analyze how anchoring effects, availability heuristics, and social proof dynamics...
Three Scenarios for the Gold Market: Consensus, Divergence, and Black Swan
This research applies the structured disagreement extraction framework from the A3P-L v2 methodology to systematically analyze three possible scenarios for the gold market in 2026: (1) Consensus scenario—continuation of current mainstream narrative; (2) Divergence scenario—key assumptions are falsif...
The January 30 Precious Metals Flash Crash: Anatomy of a Consensus Collapse
On January 30, 2026, precious metals experienced their most violent single-day decline since 1980. Gold plunged 12% from $5,600 to $4,718, while silver crashed 30-35% from $120 to $78. This research applies the Consensus Thermometer framework to analyze how a single catalyst—Trump's nomination of Ke...
Why J.P. Morgan Suddenly Added $1,200 to Gold Forecast: A Cascade Analysis
On February 2, 2026, J.P. Morgan shocked markets by raising their 2026 gold price target from $5,100 to $6,300—a dramatic $1,200 (24%) upgrade. This research examines the cascade effects this forecast revision triggered across Wall Street, how it concentrated bullish consensus (CDI increased from 0....
The Fourth Dimension: Why Prediction Markets Complete the Consensus Fragility Framework
Traditional consensus measurement relies on three dimensions: market prices (behavior), analyst forecasts (expectations), and retail sentiment (opinions). This framework is retrospective—measuring what has happened or what people think. Prediction markets represent a fourth, predictive dimension: ca...
Methodology Note
These research articles are produced using the A3P-L v2 (AI-Augmented Academic Production - Lean) methodology. Each article includes:
- Explicit confidence levels (C-SNR scores) for all claims
- Competing models presenting alternative interpretations
- Noise model documenting sources of uncertainty
- Consensus metrics from the Consensus Thermometer framework
For detailed methodology information, see Research Methodology.